Cover Photo by Brayden George on Unsplash
We are nearly two weeks away from the beginning of the 2022 college football season, ushering in a new season of Saturday afternoon tailgates, thrilling rivalry games and a new era of transcendent superstars on the gridiron. (Technically, the season officially begins next Saturday in Week Zero, though most of the nation will kick off their seasons the following week, on Sep. 3.)
Conference realignment dominated the offseason headlines for the sport, ignited by the stunning news that both USC and UCLA would be bolting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten beginning in 2024. The hierarchy and structure of college football could look much different in just a few years, led by a pair of super-conferences and other leagues attempting to rebrand their identities around different universities. Such is life in the current reality of college athletics.
However, for now we still have the traditional college football conferences, and it is shaping up to be another very entertaining year throughout the country. The Georgia Bulldogs took home their first national championship since 1980 last season, defeating Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Do the defending champions have what it takes to hold off another star-studded squad in Tuscaloosa? Former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley left the Sooners in the offseason and brought his star sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams with him to USC. Can the Trojans return to their former glory in Year 1 of the Riley era? How about in the ACC, where Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney will be attempting to return the Tigers to the College Football Playoff after losing both of his coordinators to head coaching jobs? And in the Big Ten, is this the year that Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes take home the national championship and snag the winning glory from those pesky southern schools?
We will find out the answers to those questions as the season unfolds, but first it’s prediction time. Below is my prediction for how each Power 5 conference championship game will look come December.
Conferences are listed in alphabetical order. Statistics and schedules are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and ESPN unless otherwise noted.
ACC
Clemson vs. Miami
It was an odd season for the Tigers in 2021, as several early losses caused them to miss the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2014. Some of the blame can be placed on quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who threw more interceptions than touchdowns and completed only 55 percent of his passes. If the junior is not better this season that could spell more trouble for him and the Tigers. However, the defense is the calling card for Swinney and Clemson and should be among the nation’s best once again. The defensive line is anchored by three of the best defensive players in the nation in Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis, while linebacker Trenton Simpson is a likely first round NFL draft pick in 2023. If Uiagalelei can get back on track, the Tigers have a team capable of returning to the CFP once again.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Miami enters as the second best team in the conference after Pittsburgh lost both QB Kenny Pickett and WR Jordan Addison to the NFL and USC, respectively. The Canes brought in Mario Cristobal as their new head coach, believing that the 51-year-old former Oregon coach will be able to get the most out of their talented QB Tyler Van Dyke. Miami’s skill position player group does not appear especially strong on paper, though senior tight end Will Mallory appears poised to break out in his final collegiate season. On defense, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is one of the best corners in the ACC and will be counted on to help Miami bring down their points allowed number from last season (the Hurricanes finished 85th in FBS at 28.4.) Virginia has a high-powered offense led by QB Brennan Armstrong and a host of talented receivers, though the defense will need to improve drastically for the Cavaliers to challenge Miami and Pittsburgh at the top of the division.
Projected winner: Clemson
Big Ten
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
In the Big Ten East, it looks to be a two-team battle between Michigan and Ohio State, with the winner almost certainly punching their ticket to the CFP. The Wolverines of course, knocked off the Buckeyes at home last season, riding their success all the way to the CFP semifinals. However, with the loss of defensive ends Aidan Hutchison and David Ojabo, combined with the Buckeyes returning Heisman contenders QB C.J. Stroud and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Wolverines enter the season as the underdogs to Day and Ohio State. The offense should continue to score points in bunches in Columbus, but will new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles have this defense up to a championship level? The Buckeyes certainly have the talent to get there, led by a pair of linebackers in Zach Harrison and Steele Chambers, as well as defensive backs Tanner McCalister and Ronnie Hickman.
The other side of the Big Ten appears to be wide open, and Minnesota is a team to keep an eye on as the season goes on. Tanner Morgan returns for his fifth season as the starting quarterback for the Golden Gophers, along with senior receiver Chris Autman-Bell and star running back Mohamed Ibrahim. Morgan’s arm talent and athleticism won’t be mistaken for Stroud or Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, but the veteran is a reliable leader that knows the Minnesota system. On defense, the team lost a significant amount of talent from one of the top-ranked units in the country last season, though the cupboard is not completely bare. Defensive backs Justin Walley and Jordan Howden appear poised to take steps forward, while defensive end Thomas Rush could become an All-Big Ten pass rusher. Crucially, the Golden Gophers avoid both Ohio State and Michigan on their regular season schedule, though road games against Michigan State on Sep. 24 and at Wisconsin on Nov. 26 will be crucial to their Big Ten West chances.
Projected winner: Ohio State
Big 12
Oklahoma vs. Texas
With both the Sooners and the Longhorns facing plenty of heat from their Big 12 counterparts amidst their decision to leave for the SEC in 2024, it would be awfully interesting to see these two programs play for the conference crown in 2022. Of course, the Oklahoma selection is hardly surprising. Despite head coach Lincoln Riley leaving for USC, the Sooners remain the most talented team in the conference under new coach Brett Venables and should be in consideration for the CFP once again. Oklahoma filled their quarterback vacancy with UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel, who will have a plethora of weapons at his disposal, headlined by wide receiver Marvin Mims (705 yards, 5 TDs in 2021), as well as a strong offensive line. Defense has not been a particular strength for Oklahoma in years past, as the Sooners allowed nearly 26 points per game a season ago, though Venables comes to Norman with defensive experience from his time at Clemson and could begin to turn around the defensive unit with defensive tackle Jalen Redmond and safety Key Lawrence leading the charge.
The Longhorns are a popular pick to break out nearly every season, mainly due to their ability to recruit well and attract talent. After a 5-7 season in Steve Sarkisian’s first season at the helm, the Longhorns would have to take some major steps forward to reach the conference championship game. There are plenty of doubts as to whether the defensive unit can reach that level, but the offense should be among the nation’s best. Running back Bijan Robinson is one of the best players in the country and enters as a frontrunner for the Doak Walker Award. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is entering his first season at Texas after the former top recruit spent one season at Ohio State. Ewers will have plenty of dangerous options in the passing game, led by sophomore receiver Xavier Worthy, and senior Jordan Whittington. If the defense can improve to even average, the offense should be strong enough to carry the Longhorns deep into the season.
The Longhorns and Sooners will meet in the regular season on Oct. 8 at Cotton Bowl Stadium.
Projected winner: Oklahoma
Pac-12
USC vs. Oregon
While at least three of the other Power 5 conferences should be relatively wide open, the Pac-12 seems destined to come down to just three teams: USC, Oregon and Utah. Oregon figures to be a prominent contender in the Pac-12, despite losing head coach Mario Cristobal and replacing him with former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning. The Ducks will have a new signal caller in 2022 with Auburn transfer Bo Nix leading an offense that put up over 30 points per game last season. Oregon also enters the season with one of the strongest defenses in the conference, led by defensive tackles Popo Aumaeve and Brandon Dorlus, as well as budding NFL prospect, linebacker Noah Sewell. Expect Oregon to thrive in year one of the Lanning era and potentially reach a New Year’s Six bowl.
Elsewhere in the Pac-12, the competition for the other spot in the conference title game could come down to the Oct. 15 matchup between USC and Utah in Salt Lake City. The Trojans come into the year with high expectations for the offense, with QB Caleb Williams and receivers Jordan Addison and Mario Williams leading the influx in transfer talent for Riley. On the other side, the Utes should also be good offensively, paced by returning QB Cameron Rising and bruising running back Tavion Thomas. The game between two high-powered offenses may come down to whichever team can pick up a crucial defensive stop, and somewhat surprisingly, USC may be more talented on that side of the ball, led by defensive tackle Tuli Tuopulotu and defensive back Calen Bullock. Should the Trojans beat Utah, their toughest remaining conference game would be at UCLA on Nov. 19, a game they should be favored to win.
Projected winner: USC
SEC
Alabama vs. Georgia
It’s almost too predictable to select the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs once again, but until another SEC team can knock off Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, the two giants will continue to be at the top of the sport. While Ohio State may disagree, Alabama and Georgia come into the season as the two most talented teams in the country on paper, and it would take a major upset to unseat either one of these two powerhouses. The story for the Crimson Tide revolves around returning Heisman winner QB Bryce Young, who will be working with some new skill players this season in running back Jahmyr Gibbs and receivers Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell. For Georgia, fifth-year quarterback Stetson Bennett returns after his championship-winning season in 2021 and will have the best tight end duo in the country at his disposal in sophomores Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert. Offensive line play could be a concern for both teams, though the skill players for each team may minimize the negative impact from poor play up front.
On defense is where both teams separate themselves from the rest of college football with the number of playmakers they have on that side of the ball. In Tuscaloosa, dominant linebacker Will Anderson Jr. may hear his name called first in the 2023 NFL Draft, while safeties Brian Branch and Jordan Battle anchor the secondary. Also, don’t forget about several more linebackers in Malachi Moore, Dallas Turner and Henry To'oTo'o. At Georgia, powerful defensive tackle Jalen Carter should garner plenty of attention as a run stopper and pass rusher, while Nolan Smith is one of the premier middle linebackers in the game. Cornerback Kelee Ringo is a physical specimen on the outside and should be a top NFL draft pick as well, while safety Christopher Smith will play a key role as well.
In this hypothetical matchup of two heavyweights, the winner will have a high likelihood of earning the number-one overall seed in the CFP.
Projected winner: Alabama
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