We are just days away from the beginning from Week 1 of the 2022 college football season, ushering in a new season of Saturday afternoon tailgates, thrilling rivalry games and a new era of transcendent superstars on the gridiron. (Technically, the season officially began last Saturday in Week Zero, though most of the nation will kick off their seasons this week.)
Conference realignment dominated the offseason headlines for the sport, ignited by the stunning news that both USC and UCLA would be bolting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten beginning in 2024. The hierarchy and structure of college football could look much different in just a few years, led by a pair of super-conferences (Big Ten and SEC) and other leagues attempting to rebrand their identities around different universities. Such is life in the current reality of college athletics.
However, for now, we still have the traditional college football conferences, and it is shaping up to be another very entertaining year throughout the country. After tackling the Power 5 conferences earlier this month, below is my prediction for how each Group of 5 conference championship game will look come December. The Cincinnati Bearcats became the first Group of 5 team to make the College Football Playoff since the tournament began in 2014. What do Luke Fickell and Co. have for an encore in the American Athletic Conference with many of their stars off to the NFL? In the Mountain West, Fresno State and quarterback Jake Haener have high expectations for their 2022 season. How far can the Bulldogs go behind one of the most underrated signal callers in the nation? And Coastal Carolina has put together back-to-back 11-win seasons under head coach Jamey Chadwell. Do the Chanticleers continue to dominate the Sun Belt with Appalachian State and Georgia State breathing down their necks?
Conferences are listed in alphabetical order. Statistics and schedules are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and ESPN unless otherwise noted.
AAC
Houston vs. Cincinnati
In 2021, the Bearcats stole the show among Group of 5 teams, finishing the regular season undefeated and advancing to the CFP before losing to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. This year, it could be another team from the AAC that does the same: Houston. The Cougars return an offensive core that won 12 games last season, including QB Clayton Tune and his leading receiver Nathaniel Dell (90 recs, 1,329 yards.) Houston is also strong in the trenches with James Tunstell and Jeremy Cooper anchoring the offensive line. On defense, expect one of the best defensive lines in the country to get into the opposing backfield often, headlined by defensive ends Derick Parish and De’Anthony Jones. The Cougars avoid Cincinnati in the regular season and do not currently have a team ranked inside the AP Top 25 on their regular season schedule.
Of course, don’t forget about the reigning AAC champion Bearcats, despite the team losing nine players to the NFL Draft. Linebackers Ivan Pace Jr. and Deshawn Pace will step into prominent roles on defense to replace the missing production, while safety Ja’Von Hicks could play his way into stardom as well. On offense, the Bearcats will likely turn to Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant at quarterback, allowing the senior to form a connection with one of the best receiving trios in the conference: Tre Tucker, Tyler Scott, and Nick Mardner, as well as tight end Josh Whyle. Cincinnati will almost assuredly take a step back from their best season in school history, but it doesn’t seem unrealistic to expect another double-digit win season as they prepare to enter the Big 12 soon.
Projected winner: Houston
C-USA
UTSA vs. Western Kentucky
Conference USA is undergoing a seismic shift beginning in July 2023, as six schools will be leaving the conference for the American, including UTSA and UAB, two of the frontrunners in the C-USA West. Regardless, the 2022 season will remain the same and the Roadrunners of Texas-San Antonio expect to be among the best in the conference behind returning star QB Frank Harris. The senior threw for 27 touchdowns last season and will continue to throw to two of his favorite receivers last season - Zakhari Franklin and De’Corian Clark. UTSA was 12th in the country in points per game last season and will likely have one of the top offenses in the country once again in 2022. Defensively, the secondary looks to be the strong point for head coach Jeff Traylor, spearheaded by Corey Mayfield Jr. and Rashad Wisdom.
Western Kentucky is undergoing significant turnover on offense, looking to replace their quarterback Bailey Zappe, top two running backs, and top receivers in Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley. However, the program went hard in the transfer portal, bringing in sixth-year senior Jarret Doege to command a young group of skill position players. If the Hilltoppers see development from running back Jakairi Moses and wide receivers Daewood Davis and Akron transfer Michael Mathison, the Hilltoppers should be able to withstand their below-average defense and rank near the top of the C-USA West, which now consists of just five schools with the departures of Marshall and Old Dominion.
Projected winner: UTSA
MAC
Miami (OH) vs. Central Michigan
After a breakout sophomore season for the Redhawks, QB Brett Gabbert appears poised to lead Miami to their third bowl game in four seasons, with their lone miss in the 2020 season that featured only three games. Gabbert tossed 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions in 2021 and will have his top two receivers coming back in Jalen Walker and Mac Hippenhammer, as well as tight end Jack Coldiron. The Redhawks will also have two players in the secondary capable of becoming All-League honorees in John Saunders Jr. and Matthew Salopek. Kent State and their returning receivers Xavier Williams and Dante Cephas could pose a threat to Miami, but the Redhawks are tougher on defense and should be considered favorites to emerge from the division.
On the other side, the Toledo Rockets feature a bevy of talented players on defense, including defensive linemen Jamal Hines and Desjuan Johnson, as well as safety Maxen Hood. However, the offense doesn’t appear to be among the best in the MAC, with running back Bryant Koback departing after rushing for 1,400 yards last season. Therefore, Central Michigan is the safest bet to come out on top in the MAC West, guided by QB Daniel Richardson and star running back Lew Nichols, who led the nation in rushing yards last season. With Nichols pacing the offense, the Chippewas will count on defensive linemen John Wesley Whiteside and Thomas Incoom to reach their ceiling of a MAC championship.
Projected winner: Central Michigan
Mountain West
Fresno State vs. Boise State
A member of Washington’s 2018 recruiting class, quarterback Jake Haener transferred to Fresno State before the six-game 2020 season and broke out in 2021, throwing 33 touchdowns with a 67.1 completion percentage. Now in his fifth year of college, Haener and the Bulldogs should have high expectations. Haener will lean on his top two targets from a year ago in receivers Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly, either of whom could break out for over 1,000 yards this season. Defensively, the Bulldogs finished 20th in points allowed per game in 2021 and will integrate two key players to their secondary in Cam Lockridge and Evan Williams. The country will have the opportunity to see how good Fresno State can be this season when the Bulldogs play at USC on Sep. 17.
Boise State is looking to continue its outstanding football tradition in 2022, finishing with a winning record each season since 1997. To do so, the Broncos will lean on a strong defense, spearheaded by cornerback Caleb Biggers and safety J.L. Skinner. The Broncos were 12th in points allowed per game last season. On offense, QB Hank Bachmeier returns to lead the offense for the fourth straight season, this time without star wideout Khalil Shakir, who is off to the NFL. Look for receiver Stefan Cobbs to fill his absence, trying to build on his 34-reception, 421-yard season as a junior.
Projected winner: Fresno State
Sun Belt
Appalachian State vs. Louisiana
The disparity between Group A teams and Group B teams in the Sun Belt is staggering. In Group A, App State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are battling for supremacy, alongside several other solid programs in Marshall and Old Dominion. On the flip side, Louisiana lost its’ head coach to Florida in Billy Napier and still may be favored to win a division that features five other rebuilding programs. The Ragin’ Cajuns return several talented members of their defense, including linebacker Kam Pedesclaux and edge rusher Andre Jones. The offense, however, could take a significant step back with Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge battling for the starting QB job. Tight end Neal Johnson is a player to watch as he enters his fourth season.
On the other side of the Sun Belt is where the intrigue begins, led by the battle for first between Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina. Both programs have talented quarterbacks in Chase Brice and Grayson McCall, while App State features one of the best running back duos in the conference in Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel. Defensively, the Mountaineers have two All-Sun Belt contenders in linebacker Nick Hampton and cornerback Steven Jones Jr. Circle the Thursday, Nov. 3 matchup between App State and Coastal Carolina in a game that could decide the outcome of the division. The game will be played at Coastal Carolina.
Projected winner: Appalachian State
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