The Major League Baseball season is defined by three distinct periods. There’s Opening Day, a celebration to kickstart the season as all 30 teams embark on their 162-game journey. There’s the World Series, of course, the pinnacle of the sport that determines which team has survived that 162-game gauntlet and come out victorious in the postseason. And then there’s the Trade Deadline in the middle, which almost always features surprises, disappointments and chaos for fans of each team, often in the form of blockbuster trades that nobody saw coming or the beginning of a rebuild and the accumulation of minor league prospects.
Amidst the dysfunction, the trade deadline rarely disappoints, and the 2022 season was no exception. The market started out slow after the All-Star break, mainly because of news that the Nationals were exploring their options to trade one of the most transcendent superstars in the league, right fielder Juan Soto. However, the last three days have provided a flurry of moves, including the much-anticipated Soto deal, as the 23-year-old found a new home in San Diego.
The Padres are obvious winners of the 2022 deadline, which is to be expected when you go out and acquire a hitter that has drawn serious comps to the likes of Hall of Famers such as Ted Williams. But there are other teams that had successful deadlines as well, either because they were able to boost their Major League team ahead of a postseason push, or in the case of Washington and several other clubs, boost their farm system with an influx of young, talented prospects.
While we may never know which team or teams truly “won” the Trade Deadline until after October and the confetti has fallen for a World Series champion, it is never a bad time to assess how the landscape of the league has changed with the recent transactions, and which moves may cause the biggest ripple effect over the final three months of the 2022 season.
4 Buyers that did well
San Diego Padres
Throughout the last few days, it was reported that the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers were the frontrunners in the Soto sweepstakes, and that whichever team acquired the superstar outfielder would need to surrender one of the largest packages of young talent in MLB history. Well, the Padres got their man, and yes, they absolutely paid a premium. Left-handed pitcher Mackenzie Gore, shortstop C.J. Abrams and outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood are all headed to Washington for Soto and first baseman Josh Bell, a substantial haul that cuts deep into the San Diego farm system.
Despite all that, this move is a resounding victory for the Friars. Not only did they acquire a player that has finished in the top ten of the NL MVP voting three times before his 24th birthday, but they also outbid their divisional rivals, the Dodgers, for his services. Soto and Bell (not to be forgotten with 14 homers and an .877 OPS this season), will join a Padres lineup that also expects shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. back by mid-August, and is being carried by another MVP candidate in third baseman Manny Machado (.293/.365/.510.)
But that’s not all the Padres did in the last 36 hours. General manager A.J. Preller also made a significant addition to the back end of the bullpen, bringing in four-time All-Star closer Josh Hader from the Brewers. Hader’s 4.24 ERA is a step backwards from his previously dominant years, but the lefty still leads the National League with 29 saves and has stuck out 57 batters in 34.0 innings in 2022. San Diego struck another deal with the Reds to bring infielder Brandon Drury to the roster as well, a hitter that has blossomed into a slugging force in the middle of Cincinnati’s order (20 home runs, 128 OPS+), and will continue to lengthen the now potent Padres’ lineup ahead of the postseason.
The moves that Preller made are certainly flashy on paper, and if the deals turn out as well as the Padres expect, we could look back on the last few days as a significant turning point in the history of the Padres’ franchise.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are just six games above .500 entering play on Aug. 2, but in a weak AL Central division, have found themselves in first place as the final two months of play begin. With the Guardians only one game behind, and the defending division champion White Sox still within striking distance, Minnesota needed to add to their roster to rise above the pack and may have done that with their pitching additions on Tuesday.
The Twins kickstarted the action on Tuesday in a deal with the Orioles, sending four pitching prospects (LHP Cade Povich, RHP Yennier Cano, RHP Juan Nunez, LHP Juan Rojas) to Baltimore in exchange for All-Star closer Jorge Lopez. The 29-year-old Lopez has a 1.68 ERA in 44 games and will step into a high-leverage role in Minnesota alongside Jhoan Duran and Emilio Pagan. Minnesota also tapped one of their division rivals, the Tigers, for additional relief help, bringing in right-hander Michael Fulmer (3.20 ERA in 39.1 IP.)
Another need for the Twins entering August was another starting pitcher, which the team addressed with the addition of right-hander Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati. Mahle was arguably the second-most coveted starter on the market behind his former teammate Luis Castillo and will slot in as a frontline starter for the Twins that could potentially start Game 1 of a Playoff series. Mahle’s 4.40 ERA in 2022 is not indicative of the true pitcher that he can be at full strength, particularly when you look at his 3.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP away from the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
In a winnable division, the Twins went out and added to their team while the Guardians and White Sox largely shied away from any huge deals. That could end up being the difference in a tight divisional race.
Houston Astros, New York Yankees
The Astros and Yankees are grouped together, as it’s hard to find a lot of holes on the two clear frontrunners in the American League, and both clubs made themselves better over the last 48 hours.
The Yankees went into the deadline seeking another starter with the recent injury to Luis Severino and acquired one of the better arms available in right-hander Frankie Montas from the A’s. Montas brings 109 strikeouts and 3.18 ERA with him to the Bronx, and after seeing the return that the Reds got for Castillo (more on that below), you wonder if Oakland could have got more for their frontline starter. New York also addressed their bullpen, acquiring Scott Effross from the Cubs (2.66 ERA.)
The Yankees lone hole on the position player side was the underperforming Joey Gallo in left field, but New York replaced him with All-Star Andrew Benintendi, then shipped Gallo to the Dodgers. To cap off their spending, the Yankees connected with the Cardinals on a last-minute deal to acquire center fielder Harrison Bader for left-hander starter Jordan Montgomery, who likely would have slotted in as the fifth starter in New York.
The Astros approached the deadline in a similar fashion to the Bronx Bombers, bringing in solid upgrades at positions where they were weaker. General manager James Click added two above-average bats in first baseman Trey Mancini and catcher Christian Vazquez, each of whom will likely see time at designated hitter over the final two months. Vazquez should still have the opportunity to catch some games, but the Astros also like Martin Maldonado behind the plate due to his connection with the pitching staff, particularly the starters.
Houston also traded from an area of depth on Monday night, dealing starter Jake Odorizzi to the Braves for closer Will Smith, who will add to the impressive collection of relievers already on the team. Entering Tuesday, the Astros bullpen ranked sixth in MLB in Fangraphs’ WAR, fourth in strikeouts per nine innings and fifth in saves.
The trade deadline activity of both the Yankees and Astros already solidified what has seemed obvious for the past several months: if the ALCS does not pit these two teams against one another, a major upset has occurred along the way.
2 Sellers who did well
Washington Nationals
Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo had one of the toughest assignments of any team executive this trade season: get enough value for one of the greatest players in the game in Soto. It will be tough to say if this trade with the Padres accomplishes that, particularly if Soto guides San Diego to a championship in the next few seasons. But it sure feels like Rizzo did as well as he possibly could have on paper.
The Nationals got a haul of outstanding, upper-level prospect talent in exchange for Soto and Bell, including two of the game’s most coveted young players in lefty starter Mackenzie Gore and shortstop C.J. Abrams. Both have showed glimpses of their All-Star potential in a San Diego uniform this season. The Nats also added San Diego’s No. 1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline in outfielder Robert Hassell III and No. 3 prospect in outfielder James Wood, two players that could be on the fast track to the Majors as they continue to develop into bright futures.
The eyes of the baseball world have been on Rizzo and the trade speculation involving Soto for the past three weeks. Whether fair or not, Rizzo and the Washington front office may be judged on this deal for the rest of their tenure, and whether the haul of prospects pan out in D.C. Regardless, losing a generational talent like Soto before he even enters his prime years is a sting, and all four of the above players may have to be All-Stars for that sting to subside. It’s not crazy to say that they all could, but it’s certainly asking a lot these talented youngsters.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds signaled their intent to rebuild again during this previous offseason, parting ways with outfielders Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Wade Miley.
The team, and general manager Nick Krall continued that over the last five days, dealing three of their most valuable players to contending teams, including the best pitcher traded during the deadline, Luis Castillo. The Reds knew that they possessed one of the most coveted trade chips on the market with Castillo and cashed in with their return from the Mariners. Seattle sent their No. 1 and 3 prospects in shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo to Cincinnati, as the two join an already deep group of minor league shortstops for the Reds.
In trading right-hander Tyler Mahle to the Twins, the Reds continued to focus on infielders, snagging utility infielder Spencer Steer and first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Steer could very well make his debut over the season’s final two months. The Reds also flipped free-agent-to-be Brandon Drury to the Padres, acquiring 18-year-old shortstop Victor Acosta.
For Krall and the Reds, the focus seemed to be centered on athleticism, as the team continues to stockpile young, athletic middle infielders that will be able to move around and play other positions as they get close to reaching the Majors. Cincinnati did as well as they possibly could have with their prospect additions. Now it’s time to develop a long-term plan of sustained success, with the hope of being able to avoid a similar trade deadline fire sale for years to come.
3 surprising trades that happened
LHP Josh Hader
With the 57-45 Brewers leading the NL Central by three games over the Cardinals, it was certainly surprising to see them part with their All-Star closer. General manager David Stearns has talked about the team’s desire to create a winning team long-term, and trading Hader now extends that window in the eyes of the team. It helps Milwaukee to have Devin Williams and his 1.59 ERA to slid into that role vacated by Hader.
1B Eric Hosmer
Hosmer’s name was surfacing all over Twitter on Tuesday morning, as news came out about his involvement in the Soto deal, and his subsequent refusal to waive his no-trade clause and go play for Washington. Instead, the Padres added Luke Voit to the deal with Washington and traded Hosmer to Boston, where he will likely see at-bats against right-handed pitching in a platoon role.
RHP Raisel Iglesias
As a closer on a team that is 23 games out of first place, it shouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Iglesias dealt to a contender in the Braves, but his four-year, $58 million contract that he just signed this offseason makes it unexpected. On top of that, Iglesias was dominant from 2020-21, pitching to a 2.16 ERA with 42 saves, but has not been nearly as effective in 2022, pitching to a higher ERA with an increased rate of walks and hits per nine.
3 trades that surprisingly didn’t happen
C Willson Contreras, OF Ian Happ
At 41-60 and well out of the NL Playoff picture, many reasonable people around baseball predicted both Contreras and Happ to be wearing different uniforms for the rest of the season. Alas, the Cubs elected to hold on to both players, perhaps with the intent to pursue an extension with Contreras, who is a free agent at the end of the season.
SP Carlos Rodon
Just a few short weeks ago, the idea that the Giants would possibly trade Rodon seemed far-fetched, as the team was 48-43 at the All-Star break, and were only a half game out of the second Wild Card. Then, when the team faltered out of the break and fell below .500, the possibility of a Rodon trade became much more likely. Rodon will remain with the Giants for at least the next two months, though an opt out at the end of the season is likely for the left-hander sporting a 3.00 ERA and 158 strikeouts on the season.
DH J.D. Martinez
The Red Sox had a confusing deadline, combining a desire to add to the periphery of their roster (Tommy Pham, Reese McGuire), with a competing desire to trade away players on expiring contracts (Christian Vazquez.) It was surprising then to see the team hold onto Martinez, whose five-year deal will expire at the end of the season and could have fetched the Red Sox a valuable prospect in return. Perhaps Boston believes that they can still make a postseason run, but at 52-52 in the basement of the AL East, time is running out.
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