It’s hard to believe it’s now been almost seven months since the MLB lockout ended and baseball returned on March 10. As always seems to be the case, the summer flew by and just like that, the postseason is back, and this time in an expanded format.
After experimenting with an expanded playoff field during the shortened, 60-game season in 2020, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a permanent expansion in playoff teams from 10 to 12, beginning this season. The top two seeds in each league will earn a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams will battle in the Wild Card round, a best of three series that will be played at the higher seed’s ballpark.
While the two best teams in both the American and National leagues do seem to have a slight advantage by kicking back and relaxing this weekend instead of playing high-stress playoff baseball, the 2022 field seems to be wide open over the next month.
As the postseason officially gets underway on Friday afternoon, below is one reason why each of the six American League playoff teams could hoist the World Series trophy at the end of the tournament, and one reason why 2022 may not be their year.
Teams are listed by seed in their league, beginning with the American League.
Stats are through Tuesday, Oct. 4.
#1 Houston Astros (106-56, 1st in AL West)
Why they will win: Starting pitching talent and depth
Houston starters were dominant during the 2022 season, leading MLB in pitching WAR (19.1), ERA (2.96), and strikeouts (939). That type of performance from the starting staff, combined with an offense that features All-Stars throughout the order leads to the 106-win juggernaut that the Astros were this summer. But it’s not just the production of the staff that makes it such a strength. It’s the quantity and depth that the Astros have in the rotation. Five starters made at least 25 starts for the Astros and recorded an ERA under 4.00, headlined by the likely Cy Young Justin Verlander. That doesn’t include Jake Odorizzi and Lance McCullers Jr., who combined for 20 starts and an ERA just over 3.00. The sheer number of quality options in the rotation will give manager Dusty Baker a plethora of options to use out of the bullpen and should help prevent any overuse or fatigue as the month goes on.
Why they won’t win: The Bullpen?
Of all the playoff teams, the Astros seem to be the hardest to bet against. They won 106 games in the regular season, have advanced to at least the ALCS in each of the last five seasons, and have a roster full of players that have been through these tense situations before. But when in doubt, look to the most volatile entity on almost any team this late in the season: the bullpen. The thing is… the Astros actually have a really good bullpen. Ryne Stanek, Bryan Abreu and Rafael Montero all have an ERA below 3.00, and their closer Ryan Pressly has 32 saves and 12 strikeouts per nine innings. But relievers can be streaky at any point in the season, and a few bad games in a row from Houston’s bunch could be the difference between their second World Series win in franchise history or an early exit.
#2 New York Yankees (99-63, 1st in AL East)
Why they will win: Pitching and defense
Unless you happen to live under a rock, you are well aware that Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge had one of the best regular seasons in the history of baseball, breaking the single-season AL home run record with 62 bombs and flirting with the Triple Crown. But if the Yankees are going to win their first World Series since 2009, their pitching and defense will be what gets them there. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes have been a great duo at the top of the rotation all season, and Luis Severino has been exceptional since his return from the IL in late September. The Yankees are also the best defensive team in baseball according to Defensive Runs Saved and have the versatility needed to make late-inning substitutions to preserve a close game.
Why they won’t win: The offense after Judge
Aaron Judge is great at hitting a baseball. I know that, you know that and the other 11 teams in the field certainly know that. This means the hulking, 6’7 superstar may not see too many good pitches to hit in the month of October. With Judge likely to draw a lot of walks, the Yankees will need other hitters in the middle of their lineup to step up and produce runs. Their second-best hitter, Anthony Rizzo, struggled after returning to the team in September, while outfielder Giancarlo Stanton has really struggled in the second half, hitting .151 with just seven homers. The Yankees won’t be able to rely solely on Judge to win games in October.
#3 Cleveland Guardians (92-70, 1st in AL Central)
Why they will win: That bullpen…
Forget what I said about bullpens in the Astros section for just a moment, because this Guardians bullpen needs to be appreciated. Since the start of the second half, Cleveland’s bullpen ranks first in the AL in WAR (5.0), ERA (2.35), and home runs per nine innings (0.62). Most everyone knows about the dominance of closer Emmanuel Clase and his 101 mph cutter, but the Guardians are much more than just him. Nick Sandlin, James Karinchak and Sam Hentges all have ERAs under 2.40, while Trevor Stephan and Eli Morgan have had stretches of brilliance this season as well. Cleveland has a great front three in their starting rotation with Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill and the bullpen should be well equipped to lock down any lead that the starters can hand off to them.
Why they won’t win: Lack of home run power
Only one team in MLB hit fewer home runs than the Guardians this year and that was the 95-loss Detroit Tigers. While Cleveland was able to find ways to score runs without the long ball, mainly due to their baserunning instincts and aggressiveness, they will need to be able to hit the long ball to compete with the Yankees, Astros and other top squads. Third baseman Jose Ramirez led the team with 29 homers, and he is a star, but just one other player eclipsed the 20-homer mark and only five had a double-digit total for the year. If the Guardians are able to win in October without consistently using the long ball, they would certainly be bucking the trend at a time when the most successful teams are terrific at lifting the ball over the fence.
#4 Toronto Blue Jays (92-70, 2nd in AL East)
Why they will win: Offensive firepower
The Blue Jays do not have the same problems that the Guardians have. This is an exceptional offensive team that led the Majors in OPS+ (117) and batting average (.263), with a core of offensive stars that could do damage against almost any pitching staff. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette all hit at least 24 home runs, while the catching duo of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk is the best in baseball offensively. Plus, it certainly can’t hurt that the Rogers Centre should be rocking with the Blue Jays back at home in the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Why they won’t win: Not enough from their starting pitching
The top of the Blue Jays rotation is excellent, spearheaded by a pair of AL Cy Young candidates Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. But who is going to be able to carry the load on the days when those two can’t pitch? With the extra round of games this postseason, deep pitching staffs are going to be even more important and the Blue Jays may not have a truly reliable third option. Ross Stripling is close, and outside of a bad start against the Phillies on Sept. 20, has been sensational in September. If it’s not Stripling, Toronto will need Jose Berrios to put his 2022 struggles behind him in the playoffs and pitch up to the $131 million contract extension that he signed at the beginning of the season.
#5 Seattle Mariners (90-72, 2nd in AL West)
Why they will win: The top of the rotation
The Mariners are back in the postseason for the first time since 2001, snapping the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports with their 90-win campaign. They have been a fun team to watch this season, leaning on the vibrant personalities in the clubhouse to have success in their own unique way. But to win in the playoffs this year, the Mariners may need to channel a team from the recent past: the 2019 Nationals. Washington rode three starters - Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin –on the way to their first championship and the Mariners can follow a similar blueprint. Give the ball to the tandem of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert as often as possible and hope that an offense led by star rookie Julio Rodriguez can score enough runs for the Mariners to go from the Wild Card to the World Series.
Why they won’t win: Not enough star power
It’s tough to write that the Mariners may not have enough stars after just discussing center fielder Julio Rodriguez one sentence earlier. But outside of the 21-year-old All-Star, there just aren’t many hitters in the order that strike legitimate fear in an opposing pitcher. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez led the team with 31 home runs but struck out almost 200 times. First baseman Ty France and Cal Raleigh each had over 20 home runs, but also each had stretches in the second half when they were dismal with the bat. Multiple players outside of Julio will need to make an impact for the Mariners to get past Toronto, much less the Astros or Yankees.
#6 Tampa Bay Rays (86-76, 3rd in AL East)
Why they will win: Incredible depth
The Rays have continued to win the same way by consistently fielding teams with above-average players up and down the roster. Eight players had at least a 100 OPS+ (league average is 100) on offense, including third baseman Yandy Diaz, who led the team at 143. Utility infielder Isaac Paredes tied for the team lead in home runs with 20 and designated hitter Harold Ramirez may be the best hitter that you’ve never heard of. On the pitching side, the Rays once again have one of the best bullpens in the league, consisting of players that you did not know played in the Majors. Players such as Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, Matt Wisler and Pete Fairbanks, a group that has allowed only 15 home runs in 184.3 innings.
Why they won’t win: Same as Seattle… not enough studs
The Rays used the same approach in 2020, reaching the World Series behind a group of players that weren’t All-Stars or MVP-caliber, but gelled together well and flourished as a collective unit. That team was overmatched against the Dodgers in that World Series. It’s a sobering reality for a team like the Rays, who operate with a thin budget and are not going to compete financially with the behemoths of the sport. But in an era when teams like Los Angeles and Houston are winning well over 100 games and fielding a roster chock-full of MVP and Cy Young contenders, the Rays need everything to bounce their way to defeat those types of rosters and with an extra round of baseball on top of that, their road to the title will be tougher.
Коментарі