It’s hard to believe it’s now been almost seven months since the MLB lockout ended and baseball returned on March 10. As always seems to be the case, the summer flew by and just like that, the postseason is back, and this time in an expanded format.
After experimenting with an expanded playoff field during the shortened, 60-game season in 2020, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a permanent expansion in playoff teams from 10 to 12, beginning this season. The top two seeds in each league will earn a first-round bye, while the remaining eight teams will battle in the Wild Card round, a best-of-three series that will be played at the higher seed’s ballpark.
While the two best teams in both the American and National leagues do seem to have a slight advantage by kicking back and relaxing this weekend instead of playing high-stress playoff baseball, the 2022 field seems to be wide open over the next month.
As the postseason officially gets underway on Friday afternoon, below is one reason why each of the six National League teams could hoist the World Series trophy at the end of the tournament, and one reason why 2022 may not be their year. To read the American League article, click here.
Teams are listed by seed in their league, beginning with the American League.
Stats are through Tuesday, Oct. 4.
#1 Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51, 1st in NL West)
Why they will win: LA is one of the most dominant teams in MLB history
Not to oversimplify this… but the Dodgers just won 111 regular season games in 2022. That is the second-highest win total in NL history, behind only the 1906 Cubs and is tied for fourth in MLB history. Los Angeles has star power up and down the batting order, including former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and shortstop Trea Turner. Will Smith may be the best offensive catcher in the sport and he is almost an afterthought in this lineup. On the pitching side, Julio Urias could finish as high as second in NL Cy Young voting, Clayton Kershaw is doing Kershaw things again and Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson were All-Stars this summer. It would hardly be a surprise if the Dodgers continued their buzzsaw season right through the finish line.
Why they won’t win: Late-inning relief
If it was possible for a 111-win team to have a weak spot, the Dodgers bullpen is the closest thing to it. Veteran Craig Kimbrel was removed from the closer’s role recently and may not be a trustworthy option for Dave Roberts at the back end. Roberts will surely lean heavily on a pair of relievers having breakout seasons in Evan Phillips and Alex Vesia, but neither of those two has been a high-leverage relief pitcher in the playoffs before. Expect the Dodgers to follow a similar pattern to past postseasons by bringing in starters in the late innings, including Andrew Heaney.
#2 Atlanta Braves (101-61, 1st in NL East)
Why they will win: The defending champs are better than last season
Despite not playing well for more than half of the regular season last year, the Braves came to play when it mattered most and won the World Series in 2021, defeating the Dodgers and Astros along the way. This year, the defending champions have gotten even better, winning over 100 games and narrowly edging out the Mets for the NL East crown. Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is back after tearing his ACL last July and missing the postseason, center fielder Michael Harris and starting pitcher Spencer Strider are two of the best rookies in the league and the pitching staff is improved with the continued development of Kyle Wright and a strong bullpen. Atlanta has what it takes to become the first back-to-back World Series champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
Why they won’t win: Injuries and depth issues take their toll
For as much success as the Braves have enjoyed this season, they have done so without significant contributions from three key players from last postseason. Left fielder Eddie Rosario has been ineffective since re-signing with the Braves, outfielder Adam Duvall was struggling before his season-ending injury and second baseman Ozzie Albies is back on the IL as well. On the pitching side, Strider has missed time over the past few weeks with an oblique issue, a problem that the Braves need to rectify before the NLDS. The Braves may have more top-end talent on the roster than last year’s team, but the 2021 Braves received contributions from unsuspecting players, including Rosario, and something that this year’s team may not be able to replicate.
#3 St. Louis Cardinals (93-69, 1st in NL Central)
Why they will win: Stars and veterans on offense
The Cardinals could very easily finish with the top two players in the voting for National League MVP, as both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are favorites to bring home the hardware. Both players have had superb seasons and if both carry that production into October, St. Louis could end up winning a lot of games behind the powerful duo. But the Cardinals' offense goes beyond Goldy and Nolan and includes two of the most experienced postseason players in the sport in Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols. Pujols has shown people over the last two months that he still has plenty of pop in his bat at 42 years old, and veteran teams do seem to have an advantage when the calendar flips to October.
Why they won’t win: Lack of a shutdown ace
When looking at the Cardinals' starting rotation, who is the one player that jumps off the page as a Game 5 or 7 starter? One game to decide the fate of the season, who are you giving the ball to if you’re Oli Marmol? Veterans Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright are the most experienced options, and both have had success this season (3.29, 3.71 ERA, respectively), but neither of them matches up well next to Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Max Fried or Aaron Nola. Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery have each been solid since the Trade Deadline, but can the Cardinals really count on either one to continue outperforming their career lines? The bullpen is strong, led by arguably the best closer in baseball Ryan Helsley, but the rotation may end up being too hittable against playoff-caliber offenses.
#4 New York Mets (101-61, 2nd in NL East)
Why they will win: deGrom and Scherzer at the top
Playoff series, particularly short playoff series like the Wild Card Round and NLDS, are all about matchups. And there is not a single team in the field that can boast the 1-2 punch that the Mets will roll out with deGrom and Scherzer. Despite each battling injuries during the season (deGrom didn’t debut until August), they both have been dominant on the mound with 275 strikeouts combined in 209.2 innings pitched. If both deGrom and Scherzer are firing on all cylinders when they take the mound this month, the Mets will hold a significant advantage over their opponents, especially if they are able to use those starters early in the series to establish a lead. That is the exact idea that the Mets had in mind when they brought Scherzer in this offseason to pair alongside deGrom. Now we see if the two can deliver in the spotlight.
Why they won’t win: The bridge between the starters and Edwin Diaz
“Because they’re the Mets” just seemed too easy. New York has two of the best pitchers on the planet in their rotation and they also have one of the best relief pitchers in Edwin Diaz. But what about the gap between those two? Manager Buck Showalter would love for his starters, which will also include Chris Bassitt and one of Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker, to get through six or even seven innings and then hand the ball to Diaz. But the playoffs often force you to change your plans quickly, and when that happens, the Mets will need to turn to somebody else in the bullpen. Adam Ottavino and Seth Lugo will likely get plenty of opportunities and will need to make the most of them to give the Mets a chance to advance.
#5 San Diego Padres (89-73, 2nd in NL West)
Why they will win: Manny Machado and Juan Soto
Would this section be a whole lot more interesting if Fernando Tatis Jr. were also in the fold, or what? Alas, the combination of Machado and Soto is still plenty formidable, especially in a short series. Sometimes all it takes for a team to advance is to get a couple of hitters swinging a hot bat and Machado and Soto are two of the best hitters in the sport. Machado will garner significant consideration for NL MVP, while Soto has remained an on-base machine since coming over to the Padres, despite not showing as much power. Both players have World Series experience as well, with Soto winning a title at the core of the 2019 Washington team and Machado advancing to the 2018 Series with the Dodgers.
Why they won’t win: Not enough help from the rest of the offense
In what is almost an inverse of the above, if Machado and Soto are unable to carry the load for this offense, it could be a short stint in October for the Friars. With Josh Bell and Brandon Drury struggling since their August arrivals, Jake Cronenworth regressing from last season, and Jurickson Profar mired in a slump, the Padres offense could look lifeless against an elite Mets pitching staff this weekend. Now would certainly be the time for veteran Padres hitters such as designated hitter Luke Voit and outfielder Wil Myers to write their own chapter in October history. We have seen examples time and again of veteran players rising to stardom when the postseason rolls around. San Diego may need one of those performances to advance deep in the tournament.
#6 Philadelphia Phillies (87-75, 3rd in NL East)
Why they will win: An underrated offense rises to the occasion
The Phillies have a dynamic duo of starting pitchers with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but it’s their offense that may have a coming out party this month on the national stage. Despite not having the same star power as the Dodgers, Braves, and Mets, Philadelphia was third in the NL in total bases, fifth in runs scored, and fourth in home runs. Home runs are crucial in the postseason and the Phillies have three players that can hit one at any time with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. The Phillies will have their work cut out for them as the sixth seed, but the pieces are there offensively for them to sneak up on the top seeds.
Why they won’t win: They may have the worst bullpen of any playoff team
Of the 12 postseason teams, only one has a team bullpen ERA over 4.00, and yes, it’s the Phillies (4.27). Of the seven relievers to throw at least 40 innings for Philadelphia, only one pitcher has an ERA below 3.00 and that’s Brad Hand, who has been out since late September with elbow tendinitis. The team is confident that Hand will be able to rejoin them on the postseason roster, but the Phils will need contributions from other high-leverage relief pitchers to win games this weekend and beyond. Andrew Bellatti, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez will get plenty of chances in important spots for manager Rob Thomson.
Comments