With the Aug. 2 MLB Trade Deadline just about one week away, the time that many Reds fans have been dreading since the team’s dismal 3-22 start to the season has arrived. In the next eight days, Cincinnati will likely make the decision to deal 29-year-old ace Luis Castillo, maximizing the value they can get in return for the right-hander, while also listening to offers on other players such as right-handed starter Tyler Mahle, third baseman Brandon Drury and outfielders Tommy Pham and Tyler Naquin.
As a result, the Reds’ roster could look quite different when the team takes the field next Tuesday night in Miami, complete with several new additions via corresponding trades.
Of course, as fans have witnessed at various times throughout the season, the cupboard is not bare in Cincinnati. The Reds have a young core of starting pitchers, headlined by the flamethrowing Hunter Greene, as well as a pair of cornerstone position players in second baseman Jonathan India and catcher Tyler Stephenson that are not going anywhere at the Trade Deadline.
While the Reds, currently sitting in last place in the National League Central at 36-58, will not be making a Postseason push in the final two months of the season, fans will still have the opportunity to watch the development of the roster, and specifically how that development could translate to the Reds winning more games in 2023.
Below are five players that Reds fans should be watching in August or September, regardless of how the impending Trade Deadline plays out this week.
All stats are through Sunday, July 24 and are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs unless otherwise noted.
2B Jonathan India
After a 2021 rookie season in which everything seemed to go right for India, culminating in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year award, 2022 has not brought the same success for the 25-year-old second baseman.
After hitting for an .835 OPS with 21 home runs in his rookie season, India has played in only 42 games in 2022 due to various injuries. India injured his hamstring during the Reds’ third series of the season in Los Angeles, returned within 10 days and immediately went back on the injured list until mid-June after reaggravating that right hamstring. Since returning, India has not been able to find the same groove he enjoyed in 2021, hitting just .227/.292/.356 with -1.0 WAR.
However, India may be starting to find a rhythm at the plate, putting together an eight-game hit streak last week, while also hitting for a .965 OPS over his last 14 games. Unfortunately, because of the missed time, India will likely not be able to reach his statistical highs of 2021, but if the 2018 first round pick can stay healthy and productive for the rest of the campaign, the Reds’ leadoff hitter should have a strong base to build on for 2023.
CF Nick Senzel
The second overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft arrived in Cincinnati with great fanfare in 2019, but his tenure so far in Cincinnati has been tenuous, at best. Even dating back to his time in the Reds’ minor league system, Senzel has dealt with a myriad number of injuries, including a torn labrum, a significant knee injury that required surgery in 2021 and bouts with illnesses, including COVID-19.
2022 has been Senzel’s most consistent season health-wise since his 2019 rookie year, but the production has remained underwhelming. Senzel is hitting just .256/.313/.323, showcasing little extra base power, while continuing to post a low walk rate and above-average groundball percentage. As much as the Reds want to see success out of one of their long-time top prospects, the time is now for Senzel to prove to the organization that he belongs in their long-term plans.
Otherwise, if Senzel is not able to display consistent results with the bat, the Reds may choose to either trade or non-tender the 27-year-old this offseason.
3B/DH Mike Moustakas
When the Reds signed Moustakas to his four-year, $64 million contract in December 2019, the deal represented a turning point for the franchise in the minds of many fans. The contract was the largest that the Reds had handed out to a free agent and signaled that the painful rebuilding years were coming to an end as the team added more pieces to their playoff caliber squad.
With over two years of hindsight, the Moustakas contract has been a costly one for the Reds, as the 33-year-old has declined in almost every way since his time with the Royals and Brewers. Since his debut in 2020, Moustakas has appeared in only 171 out of a possible 316 games and has hit for an OPS+ above league average just once (105 in 2020.) The 2022 season may represent a new career low for Moustakas, as he seems to have lost the extra base power that made him so valuable to the middle of a batting order, and Drury has easily surpassed him in the depth chart at third base.
However, assuming the Reds are not able to find any trade suitors before the Aug. 2 deadline, Moustakas should still have the opportunity to rebuild any value that he has left through the end of the season. Drury and infielder Donovan Solano are likely to be wearing different uniforms next week, meaning the veteran could be given August and September to play every day and rekindle his former swing. If the former World Series champion can become even a league-average third baseman, the Reds will consider that a victory heading into the final year of his four-year deal.
SP Nick Lodolo
Really, you can take your pick between the Reds’ three rookie starting pitchers – Lodolo, Greene and right-hander Graham Ashcraft – who have all showed flashes of brilliance during the 2022 season. However, I chose to highlight Lodolo because the left-hander has only pitched in 26.1 innings, compared to significantly more from Greene (90.1) and Ashcraft (59.1).
The top prospect in the Reds’ organization according to MLB Pipeline, Lodolo has shown three strong offerings across his six career MLB starts, including a mid-90s fastball and a sharp, high 80s slider that have propelled him to 38 strikeouts thus far. While his 5.81 ERA is startling at first glance, over half of those runs came in the first start of his career against Cleveland and his most recent start in St. Louis.
On the flip side, Lodolo has had several games where he looked like a potential frontline starting pitcher at the Major League level, including his first start back from the Injured List on July 5 against the Mets, when the rookie squared off against future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, hurling 4.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in a game the Reds would go on to win.
While it is certainly possible that the Reds place Greene on an innings limit as the season winds down, I would expect Lodolo to have the opportunity to start every fifth day through the end of the season, preparing to become an integral part of the Reds’ pitching staff as soon as 2023.
RP Reiver Sanmartin
If you just watched the four starts that Sanmartin made at the beginning of the season, his inclusion on this list may be a confusing one. The 26-year-old southpaw was hit harder than almost any starting pitcher in the Majors to begin the season, as batters hit a ridiculous .456 against him, while his ERA sat at a paltry 19.85 (!).
Understandably, the Reds sent him down to Triple-A Louisville with the intent of developing him as a relief pitcher, and since returning to Cincinnati, Sanmartin has been a rare bright spot in the late innings. In 16 games as a relief pitcher dating back to June 13, Sanmartin has held opposing hitters to a .213 average and .606 OPS, registering a 1.59 ERA in 17.0 innings.
Sanmartin’s fastball velocity has increased since his move to the bullpen, while his best pitch may just be a changeup that hitters were able to feast on during his four starts. Bullpens can be an unpredictable and volatile entity in Major League Baseball, but if Sanmartin can continue to improve in his new role, the Reds may have one less spot to fix heading into the offseason this winter.
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