After a 2021 season that saw the Cincinnati Reds finish with an 83-79 record and miss out on the playoffs after a late season collapse, the ownership group made the decision to cut payroll going into the 2022 season. As general manager Nick Krall put it, the Reds needed “to align our payroll with our resources,” which they promptly did as they jettisoned a large percentage of their veteran core that kept them within striking distance of a playoff spot last summer.
The cost-cutting began by trading 30-year-old catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers in early November, then continued with the decision to cut Wade Miley and allow him to sign with the division-rival Cubs as the team received nothing in return. Once Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association came to a new collective bargaining agreement in March and ended the lockout, the Reds continued to deal prominent members of last season’s team. Outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suarez were sent to the Mariners, right-handed starter Sonny Gray was dealt to the Twins and lefty reliever Amir Garrett packed his bags for Kansas City. To top it all off, 2021All-Star and Silver Slugger award-winning outfielder Nick Castellanos departed in free agency, joining the Philadelphia Phillies on a five-year, $100 million contract.
Of course, the Reds did make several additions to the Major League roster, both through the trades mentioned above and in free agency, though at the time of the acquisitions many fans were still stinging after watching nearly 14.0 WAR leave the city and continue their professional careers elsewhere.
While the losses of Barnhart and Miley did not bring back Major League talent for the 2022 season, the Reds acquired two players that they felt could be contributors in outfielder Jake Fraley and right-hander Justin Dunn in the Seattle trade, as well as two pitching prospects. Additionally, the trade of Garrett netted Cincinnati veteran starter Mike Minor from Kansas City.
In the free agent market, Cincinnati added a pair of infielders in Brandon Drury and Colin Moran, while supplementing the outfield with former All-Star Tommy Pham. Reliever Hunter Strickland was added to fill the bullpen spot that Garrett previously held and the additions of infielder Matt Reynolds, catcher Aramis Garcia and outfielder Albert Almora Jr. were made to shore up the team’s bench depth.
As the Major League Baseball season comes up on the quarter mark of the regular season, all of these moves that the Reds made beg the question: how are the current Reds faring compared to the players that the Reds moved on from?
With the obvious caveat that the season is not even halfway concluded, below is an analysis of each position that the Reds overhauled in 2022, as well as a comparison between the two groups through the first roughly 40 games of the regular season.
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Catcher
2021: Tucker Barnhart
2022: Tyler Stephenson
It was a true platoon between the veteran Barnhart and the rookie Stephenson in 2021, and with the former carrying a team option for the ’22 season, the Reds decided to deal Barnhart to Detroit in exchange for minor-league infielder Nick Quintana. The trade made Stephenson the everyday catcher for the Reds and the 25-year-old has made the most of the opportunity, hitting .303/.357.506 while also navigating a concussion suffered in April. Barnhart meanwhile has struggled to acclimate to his new surroundings with the Tigers thus far, posting just a .597 OPS while his defense has continued a slow descent from his Gold Glove-winning past.
Third Base
2021: Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas
2022: Brandon Drury, Mike Moustakas
The Reds moved on from Suarez following the worst offensive performance of his career in 2021, as the third baseman hit .198/.286/.428 over a full season. While Suarez maintained the power that made him a mainstay in the middle of Cincinnati’s order last year, much of his value was sapped due to his inability to reach base consistently. Upon trading Suarez, the Reds anticipated the everyday third base job to go to Mike Moustakas, but as Moustakas continues to see more at-bats at designated hitter, it’s been free agent addition Brandon Drury that has seen the most success at the hot corner.
Drury blasted a three-run home run on Opening Day in Atlanta on April 7 and has continued a solid offensive campaign since, slugging .509 with seven home runs and a team-leading 22 RBIs. After a slow start to the season that included an IL stint, Moustakas has steadily improved since late April, hitting for an .862 OPS in the month of May. For Suarez, the power is certainly still there (9 HRs, .474 SLG), but the 30-year-old also leads the AL in strikeouts while his early defensive metrics remain spotty.
Left Field
2021: Jesse Winker
2022: Tommy Pham
Perhaps the most unpopular move by the Reds’ front office this offseason among fans was the deal that sent Winker, along with Suarez, to the Mariners in what appeared to be highly motivated by a desire to cut salary. An NL All-Star starter in 2021, Winker enjoyed a career-year at the plate in 2021 with a .949 OPS and 24 homers. While the decision to move on from Winker, during his prime no less, may remain unpopular, the former Red has struggled mightily in his first season in Seattle. Through 42 games, Winker is hitting just .213 with two home runs and has been worth -0.5 WAR. Winker was also not one of the Reds’ best defenders in left field and that trend has continued this season as the 28-year-old has been worth -5 defensive runs saved.
After dealing Winker, the Reds turned to the free agent market and inked the veteran Pham to a one-year-deal, with the hope that the friendly confines of Great American Ball Park may allow Pham’s right-handed power to play up. Alas, that has not materialized so far, as Pham has slugged a lowly .364 and while he has been a reliable left fielder, he has not produced significantly more with the bat than Winker.
Right Field
While not many expected the Reds to seriously pursue Castellanos once he decided to opt out of the remaining two years on his contract and become a free agent, it did come as a surprise that the Reds did not even make a phone call to Castellanos during the free agency process. Instead, Castellanos signed a five-year, $100 million deal with the Phillies to join a powerful order with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins. Following a 12th-place finish in the NL MVP race a season ago, Castellanos has gotten off to a rather pedestrian start with Philadelphia, hitting for only a .736 OPS with five home runs and 0.4 WAR.
Unlike with Winker in left, the Reds did not fill Castellanos’ vacancy through the free agent market, instead opting to fill the void primarily with the left-handed hitting Tyler Naquin. Through the first quarter of the season, Naquin has hit for a higher OPS than Castellanos (.771) and driven in the same number of runs (21). As the season progresses, the expectation is that the All-Star Castellanos will regain some of his 2021 form in the city of Brotherly Love, but up to this point, the difference between the two players has been negligible at best.
Starting Pitching
In Miley and Gray, the Reds lost a combined 298.1 innings pitched and 8.3 WAR, bringing the Reds from one of the best starting staffs in the league to merely average with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle headlining the group. In their void, the Reds have turned to a mixture of younger hurlers that have seen mixed results thus far. Top prospect Hunter Greene arrived on the scene with his triple-digits fastball and has been dominant at times (7.1 IP, 0 H vs. PIT on May 15, 50 Ks in 39.1 IP), but has also been very hittable at times with a 5.49 ERA. Fellow rookie Nick Lodolo started only three games before landing on the injured list with a back injury and was a bit uneven in those starts (5.52 ERA). When Castillo and Minor opened the season on the injured list, the Reds turned to left-hander Reiver Sanmartin who was abysmal in four starts, posting an exorbitant 13.78 ERA and -1.1 WAR. Minor has yet to return from the injured list as of May 23, though Castillo has returned to start three games in May. Dunn was placed on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder injury at the start of the regular season and has yet to begin baseball activities.
Miley also dealt with injuries upon his arrival in Chicago, though he has returned in May for the Cubs, hurling 16 innings pitched with a 3.38 ERA. Gray has picked up where he left off in Minnesota, striking out 25 batters with a 3.48 ERA in five starts. Gray has also dealt with a stint on the injured list due to a right hamstring strain but has since returned and posted a 2.51 ERA in May.
Relief Pitching
Cincinnati has struggled mightily as a relief unit to begin the 2022 season, similarly to 2021 before the Reds made several additions to the bullpen in late July. The Reds 4.81 bullpen ERA is the second highest in baseball ahead of only the Rockies, while their 22 home runs allowed ranks tied for third most. Much of the 2021 bullpen remained intact heading into 2022, including right-handers Art Warren, Tony Santillan and Luis Cessa, as well as long reliever Jeff Hoffman. With the loss of Garrett, the Reds have turned to rookie Alexis Diaz, who has blossomed into the Reds’ best reliever, carrying a 0.92 ERA in 19.2 innings pitched. Strickland has not experienced the same success through the first quarter of the year, registering a 5.40 ERA while walking as many hitters as he has struck out (14).
Garrett has enjoyed a resurgent season so far in Kansas City, punching out 15 hitters in 13.1 innings with a 3.38 ERA. While Garrett initially received opportunities to be the closer for Cincinnati last season, the Royals have returned the left-hander to his more usual seventh-inning role, where has been successful to begin the season for a rebuilding Kansas City squad.
Comparison
Players that left the Reds:
Nick Castellanos: 0.4 WAR, 5 HR, .736 OPS
Jesse Winker: -0.5 WAR, 2 HR, .604 OPS
Eugenio Suarez: 1.0 WAR, 9 HR, .794 OPS
Tucker Barnhart: 0.0 WAR, 0 HR, .507 OPS
Wade Miley: 0.3 WAR, 10 K, 3.38 ERA
Sonny Gray: 0.3 WAR, 25 K, 3.48 ERA
Amir Garrett: 0.2 WAR, 15 K, 3.38 ERA
Totals: 1.7 WAR, 16 HR, .660 OPS, 50 K, 3.41 ERA
Replacement starters for Reds in 2022:
Tyler Naquin: 0.5 WAR, 4 HR, .771 OPS
Tommy Pham: 0.3 WAR, 5 HR, .696 OPS
Brandon Drury: 0.4 WAR, 7 HR, .840 OPS
Tyler Stephenson: 1.0 WAR, 4 HR, .842 OPS
Hunter Greene: 0.2 WAR, 50 K, 5.49 ERA
Nick Lodolo: 0.2 WAR, 19 K, 5.52 ERA
Alexis Diaz: 1.1 WAR, 24 K, 0.92 ERA
Hunter Strickland: 0.0 WAR, 14 K, 5.40 ERA
Totals: 3.7 WAR, 20 HR, .787 OPS, 107 K, 4.33 ERA,
Analysis
Perhaps not what you would expect given the public opinion centering around these trades? While it is of course much too early to determine conclusively whether the Reds “won” the offseason from an on-field standpoint, the team’s new everyday starters at the positions that they lost players have produced nearly 2.0 more WAR, hit four home runs and have posted an OPS nearly 130 points higher on the offensive end. While the current staff is running a higher ERA than the collective ERA of the traded pitchers, the 2022 Reds have doubled the strikeout output from the above group, including Greene whose 50 strikeouts match the total of Gray, Mahle and Garrett combined thus far.
This research of course begs the question: why are the Reds so bad in 2022? If the players that the team brought in are outperforming those that were jettisoned away or chose to sign elsewhere, shouldn’t it stand to reason that the Reds would be performing much better as a team? In short, not really, mainly due to the sheer number of injuries that the Reds have endured early on this season.
2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has played just 11 games due to a hamstring injury, 1B Joey Votto missed over two weeks after being placed on the COVID-19 IL and has hit for just a .499 OPS when healthy. Stephenson missed 11 games with a concussion suffered in San Diego, and two holdovers from last season, Moustakas and shortstop Kyle Farmer have each struggled this season, though Moustakas is heating up in May.
On the pitching side, Castillo has made just three starts since his return from the injured list, Mahle has posted an ERA over five, the rookie starting pitchers are still trying to find consistent success in the Major Leagues and the bullpen has mostly been an atrocity.
While anything can happen in a 162-game regular season, the Reds currently hold the worst record in baseball at 12-29 through the first 41 games. However, for as frustrating as the offseason was for fans to stomach, the blame shouldn’t fall primarily on those deals. As Drury, Stephenson, Diaz and others continue to produce through the first quarter of the season, it’s time for the holdovers from last season’s team to start making a positive difference.
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