When the Cincinnati Reds, along with the rest of Major League Baseball, take a brief pause next week for the All-Star break and the Midsummer Classic, starting pitcher Luis Castillo will once again represent the Reds at Dodger Stadium as the team’s lone All-Star representative.
The two-time All-Star has been magnificent since making his season debut on May 9, pitching to a 2.92 ERA across 71.0 innings pitched, with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Since 2019, Castillo has been one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball, delivering a 3.52 ERA and 3.49 FIP.
As the Reds find themselves in a deep hole in the National League, the team enters the Aug. 2 trade deadline as obvious sellers and should receive a substantial haul of talent if they do decide to deal Castillo to a contending team.
Castillo’s value to other teams across MLB is high, particularly considering that the right-hander has another year of club control on his contract after this season and will not become a free agent until after the 2023 season. Because of that, interested teams in the Castillo sweepstakes would acquire the starter for about a year and a half, as opposed to other rental starting pitchers that may be available on the market.
All of that makes Castillo one of the most coveted pitchers on the 2022 trade market ahead of the deadline and gives the Reds a lot of leverage in possible trade scenarios. Given the state of the trade market and the lack of other top-end options for contending teams, the Reds asking price for Castillo should be steep, and would ideally include two top-100 prospects.
If that asking price seems too large, remember that just last trade deadline, the Blue Jays acquired starting pitcher Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins, in exchange for MLB Pipeline’s No. 16 prospect Austin Martin and No. 68 prospect Simeon Woods-Richardson. On top of that, Berrios was not having the All-Star season that Castillo was at the time of the trade, posting a higher ERA and FIP and only slightly more K/9 than Castillo is now.
Simply put, the Reds hold arguably the most coveted trade chip in the entire league on their roster and cannot afford to miss on the prospects that they are acquiring.
With all that in mind, I have compiled several trade scenarios that I believe would make sense from both teams’ perspective, enabling Cincinnati to acquire the prospects necessary to make a Castillo trade worth it.
Otherwise, the Reds could just hold on to the 29-year-old right-hander, opting instead to trade him next offseason, or attempt to work out an extension. But if general manager Nick Krall and the front office are offered one of these deals below, they would be wise to accept.
Trade 1
Los Angeles Dodgers receive: SP Luis Castillo
Cincinnati Reds receive: SP Bobby Miller, 3B Miguel Vargas
Despite losing ace Walker Buehler to an elbow injury that could sideline him until September, the Dodgers have weathered the loss by turning to a pair of surprise arms: Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson. Both hurlers have an ERA+ of at least 130, while Gonsolin has earned an All-Star appearance with a 2.02 ERA. Combine those two with future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw and talented lefty Julio Urias, and the Dodgers still have a formidable rotation for October. With that being said, injuries can still happen at any time, and the Dodgers have the prospect capital to acquire Castillo, shifting either Urias and or Anderson to a bullpen role in the Postseason.
Miller, who touches 98 with his fastball and has an above-average slider and changeup, is currently ranked 26th on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list. Miller does carry some reliever risk if he is unable to control his high velocity, but so far, the Dodgers have put him on the right developmental path. Vargas, meanwhile, is ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 70 prospect, with his hit tool and versatility his calling cards to reach the Majors. MLB Pipeline calls Vargas the best pure hitter in Los Angeles’ system, and the 22-year-old would be able to play either third base, second base or first base on a regular basis.
I believe the Reds would be willing to take this deal in a heartbeat, as both players project as solid Major League contributors as soon as 2023, with All-Star potential if everything breaks right. The question then is if the Dodgers are willing to part with two of their most coveted prospects to add to a rotation that is already one of the team’s strengths. An alternative deal could be to swap out Miller for outfielder Andy Pages, but the Reds should push for Miller, who has the potential to be a frontline starter in just a few seasons.
Trade 2
New York Yankees receive: SP Luis Castillo, RP Alexis Diaz
Cincinnati Reds receive: SS Oswald Peraza, LHP Ken Waldichuk, LHP J.P. Sears
Some Reds fans may see that the Yankees would acquire both Castillo and the Reds’ best relief pitcher Alexis Diaz in this trade and think that the Reds would be giving up too much. While I can understand the skepticism, the Reds have been searching for a franchise player at shortstop since Barry Larkin retired, and they could have one in Peraza. According to MLB Pipeline, Peraza hits the ball as hard as anyone the Yankees have in their deep farm system, and he has the quickness and smooth hands to stay at shortstop long term.
Sure, the Reds already have a pair of promising shortstop prospects close to the Majors in Jose Barrero and Matt McLain, but both of those players have the versatility to move around the diamond, and neither projects to be as good offensively as Peraza. The Reds would also receive a pair of pitching prospects, headlined by Waldichuk, MLB Pipeline’s No. 72 prospect. The left-hander does not throw extremely hard, sitting 92-95 with the four-seam fastball, but gets solid movement with the pitch and pairs it with three other pitches (slider, curveball, changeup) to give him a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.
In parting with Diaz, the Reds would be giving up a 25-year-old rookie reliever that has recorded a 2.16 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. Diaz could continue this trajectory to becoming a relief ace into his prime, but relief pitchers can also be very volatile, meaning the Reds should jump on the chance to acquire Peraza, even if it means parting with the young, hard-throwing Diaz.
Trade 3
Cleveland Guardians receive: SP Luis Castillo
Cincinnati Reds receive: OF George Valera, LHP Logan Allen
While the Yankees and Dodgers may be seen as the frontrunners to acquire Castillo due to their deep farm systems, the Guardians could be a sneaky candidate to deal for the two-time All-Star. At 43-44, Cleveland is currently out of the Playoff bracket, but with the addition of a frontline starter like Castillo and another power bat for the middle of the order, the Guardians could challenge Minnesota for the division crown.
To do so, Cleveland may have to part with their top position player prospect Valera, who could hit around 25 home runs per season with a .280 average according to MLB Pipeline. Valera is continuing to improve his stock in 2022, hitting .272/.373/.484 with 13 home runs and 52 RBIs in Double-A Akron. Valera will also represent the Guardians at the Futures Game this weekend in Los Angeles.
Not to be confused with the Logan Allen that was included in the three-team Trevor Bauer trade of 2019, the 23-year-old Allen is the No. 99 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list and has performed well since being drafted in the second round in 2020. Allen’s best pitch is a low-80s changeup, while his fastball has played up in the minors thanks to his command of the pitch at 92-94 mph.
All three of these deals would require other teams to give up significant prospect capital to complete a deal, but for the Reds to trade an All-Star pitcher in his prime like Castillo, Cincinnati should be confident in the players that they are acquiring, and all three of these hypothetical deals would allow to that to happen.
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