It’s here.
The best month of the college basketball season and perhaps the best month of any sports season is here with the arrival of March. It’s conference tournaments. It’s the NCAA Tournament. It is officially March Madness.
With most mid-major schools having wrapped up their regular season schedule, there is just one more weekend of games for the bigger schools before every team in the country will be in postseason mode.
This weekend brings a combination of both conference tournaments and regular season games, including several games that will have implications on conference seeding and placement in the bracket on March 12 when Selection Sunday rolls around.
In addition to games from Power 6 conferences, the Ohio Valley, Big South, Atlantic Sun and Missouri Valley conferences will all crown winners of their conference tournaments and stamp the first participants of the Big Dance.
It all begins this weekend. Buckle up and enjoy because the most thrilling four weeks of basketball are about to ensue.
Last week’s record: 8-5
Season record: 66-36
Friday, Mar. 3
Dayton @ Saint Louis, 7:00 p.m., ESPN2
The VCU Rams have locked up the Atlantic-10 regular season championship but the two teams directly behind them in the standings will face off ahead of the conference tournament in St. Louis. The Flyers have a significant edge on the defensive end, led by forward Toumani Camara, with Dayton holding opponents to 28 percent from beyond the arc. Saint Louis is not a team that thrives on the 3-point shot however and may be able to find success by playing through their attacking trio of guards. Dayton earned the win easily over the Billikens back on Feb. 10, shooting over 50 percent from two and 40 percent from three. Another shooting night like that would secure the No. 2 seed in the A-10 tournament for the Flyers.
Prediction: Dayton
Saturday, Mar. 4
Had Alabama lost to Auburn on Wednesday night, Saturday’s game between the Crimson Tide and the Aggies would have been for a share of the SEC title in a raucous environment in College Station. Instead, a win on Saturday for Texas A&M will only be able to boost their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, which is no small consolation. The Crimson Tide had to storm back to beat Auburn in overtime and trailed by 17 with under 10 minutes to go in the second half. This was the third straight game that the Crimson Tide, typically dominant all season, has won a game by one possession. That may not work against the Aggies, who are quietly playing some of the best basketball of anyone in the country entering March, winning seven of their last eight and in line for the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament.
Prediction: Texas A&M
#23 Kentucky @ Arkansas, 2:00 p.m., CBS
Kentucky is just a tough team to figure out this season. Coming off four straight wins over quality opponents, including road wins at Mississippi State and Florida, the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt at home Wednesday night, while shooting 3-19 from three. Beyond that, the Cats are dealing with several injuries in their backcourt to Sahvir Wheeler and Cason Wallace. The Razorbacks went into Rupp Arena and beat Kentucky on Feb. 7 and standout freshman Nick Smith Jr. is back in the lineup now. Eric Musselman’s squad has dropped two straight games to Alabama and Tennessee but should be able to finish the regular season strong at home.
Prediction: Arkansas
Another game where the stakes could have been much higher than they will be on Saturday. Had the Longhorns beat TCU this week, Texas would have entered the game against Kansas needing a win to earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title. Instead, with the Jayhawks having secured the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, both teams will be playing for momentum and NCAA Tournament seeding. Texas is comfortably on the No. 2 seed line according to many bracket experts and a win here plus a Big 12 tournament championship may garner them some attention on the No. 1 line. But Kansas is playing their best basketball of the season when it matters most and Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick and Co. will end their regular season with a tough, gritty road win in Austin.
Prediction: Kansas
A pair of ACC teams coming off bad losses in their previous outings, with Miami trying to shake off a loss to 9-21 Florida State, while the Panthers took a loss on the road to a Notre Dame team with more conference wins than only Louisville. One of these teams will be able to bounce back when the two squads meet in the regular season finale in Coral Gables. Miami has the more explosive offense and the two best players in the game in Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller. Both teams are capable of filling it up from the field, especially with defenses that tend to allow buckets in bunches, but the Hurricanes are inside the nation’s top 40 in 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and free throw percentage.
Prediction: Miami
Duke @ North Carolina, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Part two of college basketball’s best rivalry will commence Saturday night with the Blue Devils taking the first game of the 2023 season between the two teams on Feb. 4. Both teams could use a victory going into the ACC Tournament but for North Carolina, Saturday’s game looms large. Now winners of three in a row, North Carolina is fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth and is squarely on the bubble in the regular season’s last week. Last time out, it was the physicality and talent of Duke freshmen Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively that won the Blue Devils the game. On Saturday night, look for UNC forward Armando Bacot to be the difference maker with the Tar Heels riding positive momentum into postseason play.
Prediction: North Carolina
Boise State @ Utah State, 9:00 p.m.
With the regular season wrapping up, a quick salute to the Mountain West conference, which could have four teams in the NCAA Tournament field when the bracket is revealed. San Diego State has run the league but both Boise State and Utah State have been competitive all season, winning north of 20 games and each checking in inside the top 25 on Kenpom.com. Utah State needs Saturday’s win to help their bubble resume, with the Aggies’ best wins this season coming over Nevada and Oral Roberts, both at home. With a win Saturday night and a run to at least the semifinals of the MCW tournament, Utah State should be dancing.
Prediction: Utah State
A bravo to the Pac-12 for putting this slugfest game in the final regular season slot before the Pac-12 tournament. With just two weeks to go until the NCAA Tournament, this is the exact matchup that fans want to see, particularly with both teams looking likely to stay on the No. 2 seed line barring an unexpected early exit in the Pac-12 tourney. After back-to-back losses against Arizona and USC in late January, the Bruins have looked like one of the best teams in the nation over the last month. Mick Cronin’s team is one of the best defensive teams in the country, don’t turn the ball over at a high rate and grab offensive rebounds at a sky-high clip. Playing at home with a veteran-laden team should help boost their chances against the Wildcats even more Saturday night.
Prediction: UCLA
Arizona State @ USC, 11:00 p.m., FS1
A massive game at UCLA looms Thursday night for the Sun Devils, but assuming they are unable to pull off the massive upset in Westwood, Arizona State will need to win against USC Saturday night to remain on the bubble. According to Bracket Matrix, both Arizona State and USC sit on the No. 11 line as of Thursday, making Saturday’s contest among the most consequential of any game on the weekend schedule. The Trojans and Sun Devils play similar styles, with neither team particularly sound on the offensive side but both can sit down and guard on the defensive side. Last Saturday’s game against Arizona notwithstanding, Arizona State had kept each of their February opponents under 70 points, winning five of seven total in the month.
Prediction: Arizona State
Sunday, Mar. 5
#1 Houston @ Memphis, 12:00 p.m., CBS
Sunday’s game means practically nothing for Houston and potentially everything for Memphis. For the Cougars, they could lose to a team that is barely projected to be in the field on the road but still win the American Athletic conference, win the conference tournament, and become a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. For the Tigers, a resume-boosting win over a team as dominant as Houston would go a long way toward securing their spot in the field of 68. The question is can Penny Hardaway’s team get it done? Houston is so fundamentally sound in each aspect of the game, especially defense and offensive rebounding. There’s a reason Houston will likely enter the NCAA Tournament as a betting favorite to win the championship and teams like that don’t lose to bubble teams in March, regardless of the stakes.
Prediction: Houston
Illinois @ #5 Purdue, 12:30 p.m., FOX
In a contrast to Houston, Purdue is in serious jeopardy of losing their projected No. 1 seed if their slide continues. After a home loss to Indiana, the Boilermakers’ third loss in their last four games, Matt Painter’s team closes with a road game at Wisconsin Thursday and Illinois at home. With wins in each of these games, a No. 1 seed remains likely, while center Zach Edey should also secure the national player of the year award soon. The Illini are a great 2-point shooting team, but against Purdue, making threes and drawing Edey away from the basket are paramount to success. The Illini rank No. 330 in the land in 3-point percentage. That’s not going to get it done.
Prediction: Purdue
Michigan @ #15 Indiana, 4:30 p.m., CBS
Which Indiana team will show up in this regular season finale against a desperate Wolverines team clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes? Will it be the team that went to Mackey Arena and beat Purdue relatively easily or the team that got their doors blown off against Iowa at home earlier this week in a true letdown game? My guess is closer to the latter, especially with guard Jalen Hood-Schifino proving to not only be one of the best freshmen in the country, but one of the best scorers and players in the country. With Hood-Schifino and Trayce Jackson-Davis forming a dynamic one-two punch, the Hoosiers can make noise in March, presuming the team doesn’t have a collapse like Tuesday night against the Hawkeyes. Of course, anything can happen in March, but Indiana feels like a safe bet going into the Big Ten tournament.
Prediction: Indiana
Bonus Predictions- Conference Tournaments
With four mid-major conference tournaments crowning their champions this weekend, here are brief predictions on who I think will win the Ohio Valley, Big South, Atlantic Sun and Missouri Valley tournament championships.
Ohio Valley- Morehead State
The Eagles have lost only one game since Jan. 14 and enter Friday’s semifinal round as winners of five in a row. Guard Mark Freeman has been an all-around star for Morehead State, averaging 14.8 points and 3.8 assists for an Eagles team aiming for its second NCAA Tournament berth in the last three seasons.
Big South- UNC Asheville
The overwhelming favorites entering the conference tournament after winning the league by four games over second-place Longwood and Radford, the Bulldogs are a dangerous offensive team entering March. Mike Morrell’s squad ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point percentage, though turnovers could be a problem, especially against a team like Longwood that is good at forcing mistakes and keeping opponents off the glass.
Atlantic Sun- Liberty
One of the best shooting teams in the country, the Flames could be a dangerous opponent for a high major in the NCAA Tournament field. Liberty’s 56.1 effective field goal percentage is ninth in the country according to Kenpom.com, while the Flames are the best in the country at keeping their opponents off the glass. Making plenty of shots while not allowing the opponent to have second-chance buckets? That sounds like a recipe for success for standout guard Darius McGhee and Liberty in March.
Missouri Valley- Bradley
Momentum can sometimes be overrated in a single-elimination tournament, but the Braves have won 10 in a row and don’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. In their latest win over a solid offensive team in Drake, Bradley held the Bulldogs to 23 percent from three, easily outrebounded Drake, and shot 50 percent from three themselves.
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