After four straight weeks of being stuck on only eight wins in a weekend, I made a breakthrough with my weekly predictions last time out.
Were it not for Duke losing at Virginia in overtime (and that one had a controversial ending), as well as No. 1 Purdue’s stunning loss at Northwestern, I would have gone 13-0 in my weekend predictions. Sure, the slate may have been lighter than most weeks and most of my picks didn’t go too far out on a limb, but as we know, college basketball is a wild sport. Upsets happen at any time, any place and to any team. Rare is the opportunity to be correct in every game that you pick, and I am proud to say I came close.
Perhaps in the future, I will start picking these games against the spread to increase the difficulty. But not until I achieve the perfect week that just eluded my grasp last weekend. Until then, straight up it is, and another thrilling slate of weekend college basketball should make it challenging once again. It really is an amazing sport.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference.com/cbb, unless otherwise noted.
Last week’s record: 11-2
Season record: 51-26
Friday, Feb. 17
Yale @ Penn, 7:00 p.m., ESPNN
A light Friday night slate gives us this opportunity to talk about two of the best teams in the Ivy League facing off against one another. Yale has won six in a row, including a home win over Penn back on Jan. 21, and is operating as one of the most efficient teams in the mid-major ranks. Outside of free throw shooting, Yale is sound in every aspect of the game, including limiting outside shots, which is part of Penn’s success as winners of five in a row. Yale should also be able to score with ease against a Quakers’ defense ranked No. 241 on Kenpom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
Prediction: Yale
Saturday, Feb. 18
Illinois @ #14 Indiana, 12:00 p.m., ESPN
It was a shaky start for the Illini in the Big Ten this season, opening 0-3 to start conference play before battling their way back to .500. Then, just when Brad Underwood’s team starts to get on a roll, they lose by 12 at Penn State and allow Jalen Pickett to score 41 points. Now, Pickett is of course, a great player and can go off like that against a lot of teams, but Illinois giving up 93 points to the Nittany Lions does not bode well for their chances against Trayce Jackson-Davis and Indiana at Assembly Hall. Maybe it was just a blip for an Illinois defense that has been solid for most of the season but righting the ship against a Hoosiers team also coming off a loss doesn’t appear likely on Saturday.
Prediction: Indiana
Seton Hall @ #20 UConn, 12:00 p.m., FOX
Connecticut is such a tough team to figure out this season. The Huskies are ranked No. 6 on Kenpom, have the nation’s 11th most efficient offense and a frontrunner for Big East Player of the Year in Adama Sanogo, and yet they are just 8-7 in the Big East. The Big East is a tough conference this year, and it’s not like many of UConn’s losses can be considered “bad losses,” but at some point, the Huskies have to start beating teams that they are mathematically better than to rise in the standings and in bracket projections. That starts Saturday against a Seton Hall squad that really struggles on the offensive end, shooting 32 percent from three and sitting as one of the worst Power conference teams in turnover rate.
Prediction: UConn
#10 Tennessee @ Kentucky, 1:00 p.m., CBS
From the home loss to South Carolina to immediately then winning at Tennessee and then, later, losing to Georgia on the road… it’s been a weird season for John Calipari and the Wildcats. So in that regard, it would only make sense for the Wildcats to beat Tennessee at Rupp Arena on Saturday and give themselves a massive boost to their NCAA Tournament hopes. But it also doesn’t feel likely right now. Tennessee is the most physical, fundamentally sound defensive team in the country, and Kentucky’s main problem this season has been a lack of an offensive identity outside of Oscar Tshiebwe. The Cats will need both C.J. Fredrick and Sahvir Wheeler healthy and in the rotation on Saturday to even have a chance against the Volunteers for a second time this season.
Prediction: Tennessee
Jerome Tang’s Kansas State Wildcats were the talk of the country at the beginning of conference play, beating Texas, Baylor and Kansas in a two-week stretch and cracking the top five of the AP poll. The Wildcats are now mired in a slump however, losing four of their last five with their lone win in that span against a short-handed TCU team. Now the Cyclones come to town with the veteran core and suffocating defense in a game that doesn’t bode well for K-State. Despite the brilliance of point guard Markquis Nowell this season, turnovers have been a problem for the Wildcats this year and the Cyclones are No. 2 in the country in forcing them on the defensive end. (Fun fact: Merrimack, the No. 329 team on Kenpom this season is ranked No. 1 in turnover percentage. College basketball. What a sport.)
Prediction: Iowa State
Wake Forest @ #15 Miami, 2:00 p.m., ACCNX
Likely on the outside looking in at the moment, Wake Forest is in dire need of a quality win and a road victory against the Hurricanes would certainly qualify. Among the best shooting teams in the country, Wake Forest can put up points against a Miami squad ranked by Kenpom as the No. 119 team in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Demon Deacons also have issues on defense and those problems are going to be magnified against a hot Miami team filled with upperclassmen that can put the ball in the bucket. Miami, led by two of the most underrated players in the country in Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, has won 21 games, five in a row, and is cruising into March.
Prediction: Miami
Oklahoma State #22 TCU, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+
The Horned Frogs need the return of point guard Mike Miles Jr. in the worst possible way. One of the best lead guards in the country, Miles averages 18.1 points and three assists per game but since he sustained a knee injury, TCU is just 1-4 in their last five games without him. Now 6-7 in conference play and spiraling out of the AP Top 25, the Frogs will need either Miles to return or a step up from the rest of their backcourt to pull off the home win. Oklahoma State has its shooting deficiencies, but Mike Boynton’s team can guard like nobody’s business and will bring that physical style of play to Fort Worth. Even if Miles gives it a go on Saturday, the Cowboys may still be the better team, winning five of their last six.
Prediction: Oklahoma State
The game of the week around the country, the Bears and Jayhawks have created a fascinating rivalry matchup over the last several years. Baylor won the first meeting between the two teams on Jan. 23 behind 39 combined points from L.J. Cryer and Adam Flagler, while Kansas shot just 26 percent from beyond the arc. The current version of the Jayhawks is playing much better than that Kansas team, however, winning three in a row while averaging 84 points over the streak. Freshman guard Gradey Dick was sensational in the win at Oklahoma State earlier this week, scoring 26 points on five threes. If Dick and Jalen Wilson each play to their full capabilities, the Jayhawks have two All-American caliber players, a tough thing to overcome even for Baylor’s No. 1 ranked offense on Kenpom.com.
Prediction: Kansas
Texas A&M @ Missouri, 6:00 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri picked up one of the best wins of any team this season when they went at Tennessee and stunned the Vols with DeAndre Gholston’s three-point buzzer-beater to win the game. The Tigers followed that up by getting absolutely throttled at Auburn on Tuesday night, losing 89-56 while allowing one of the SEC’s worst shooting teams to shoot 50 percent from three. Confusing, to say the least. But Missouri should still be in good shape for the NCAA Tournament as they go for their 20th win of the season against the Aggies Saturday night. Texas A&M though is a desperate team, clinging to life on the bubble and needing to rack up as many quality wins as possible before Selection Sunday. Texas A&M can also win games by their ability to clean up the glass and earn second-chance points, a stat that the Tigers don’t excel in.
Prediction: Texas A&M
Sunday, Feb. 19
North Carolina @ #23 NC State, 1:00 p.m., ESPN
Outside of either game when the Tar Heels will face Duke, this feels like the most important regular season game of the year for North Carolina. The Heels are squarely on the NCAA bubble and have squandered nearly every opportunity to come up with a quality win in ACC play. That includes Monday’s home game against Miami when the Hurricanes shot 46 percent from three and won comfortably in Chapel Hill. Now, the preseason No. 1 UNC is in real danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they don’t beat NC State, one of the few remaining key games on their schedule. Hubert Davis’ team clearly has the talent to get it done, but NC State is led by a pair of guards that can beat anyone in the country – Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner – and outside of a loss at Syracuse this week, have been playing very good basketball. Carolina’s key to the win will be playing through forward Armando Bacot and hoping to exploit a weakness in the Wolfpack’s approach, which is interior defense.
Prediction: North Carolina
Memphis @ #2 Houston, 3:00 p.m., ESPN
The Cougars need to be careful in this Sunday afternoon game against Memphis. Houston, at 23-2 and a full two games up on the next-best AAC team isn’t playing for a ton, while this game could make or break the season for Penny Hardaway’s Memphis team. Sitting on the 11-seed line according to Bracket Matrix, a win for the Tigers could give them a cushion over the other Tournament hopefuls. That’s easier said than done against Houston, however. I haven’t discussed the Cougars at length in these preview articles, mostly because they continue to roll over their AAC opponents. Houston is top ten in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, have just one blip on their conference résumé and has the conference’s best player in guard Marcus Sasser. Memphis is a solid team that could win a game in the NCAA Tournament if they get in, but they’re not going on the road and hanging with Kelvin Sampson’s crew.
Prediction: Houston
Belmont @ Drake, 3:00 p.m., CBSSN
A Missouri Valley contest between two of the best shooting teams in the country. For Drake, the Bulldogs are searching for their 23rd win of the season already, a total that would match the 2018-19 team for most regular-season wins in school history since the 2007-08 season. Six-foot-seven guard Tucker DeVries is one of the best mid-major players in the country (19.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and can carry the team on his back when needed. Belmont’s immediate success in the MVC has been impressive, with the Bruins sitting third in the country in three-point percentage and 12-5 in their first season in the new conference. But all indications are that Drake is the class of the league this season and it will take a herculean effort from Ben Sheppard and Co. to give Belmont the road upset.
Prediction: Drake
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