To watch and follow the NCAA Tournament on a yearly basis is to witness one of the most exhilarating segments of the sports calendar unfold so quickly in front of your eyes.
On Selection Sunday, the field of 68 is set and anticipation is high for each team in the bracket. Maybe this is the year your favorite team makes a run to the Final Four for the first time (or returns to the sport’s grandest stage once again), or perhaps this is the year that plucky Cinderella team that you have been telling everybody about for months bursts on to the national stage and advances deep into the tournament.
The point is that the days after the bracket is announced and before first round games actually tip off on Thursday are brimming with optimism and amazing anticipation of what is to come.
And then, in the span of just 96 hours, that field of 64 is whittled down to 16.
The NCAA Tournament just seems to go by in a blur, and hey, maybe it does, it’s only about three weeks long anyway.
A week from now, the Final Four teams will be set, travel arrangements to Houston will be figured out and debates will rage on about which teams will have the opportunity to join college basketball immortality as national champions.
On the road to that destination, we have a thrilling collection of Sweet 16 games that will surely produce some more exciting Elite Eight matchups when the time comes.
With two No. 1 seeds already bounced from the bracket, including one losing to a No. 16 seed, a No. 15 seed in the Sweet 16 after two impressive wins over power conference schools and none of North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, and Kansas remaining in the field, this year’s regional semifinals may look different, but rest assured, the tournament will continue to shine, just as it does every year. Don’t miss any of the action though, because as we know, soon it will all be over, with another long offseason on the horizon.
Thursday, March 23
East Region (New York, NY)
Why Michigan State can win: The Tom Izzo factor is real in March. After defeating USC in the Round of 64, the Spartans faced a tough test in No. 2 seed Marquette in the Round of 32, but Izzo’s team showed the toughness and talent level of a Michigan State team of the past. Sure, the Spartans shot only 2-16 from three in their second round matchup, but the defensive gameplan was terrific, with Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek contained to only seven points. Plus, the guard duo of Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard are playing like one of the best backcourt duos in the country at the right time, with Walker scoring 35 points through the first two games of the tournament.
Why Kansas State can win: The Wildcats are one of the best stories in college basketball this season and have been led by two of the best players in the country in guard Markquis Nowell and forward Keyontae Johnson. The two have an inside-outside combination working through two NCAA Tournament games, with Nowell providing 44 points and 23 assists and Johnson pouring in 31 points of his own. It takes talented guards to be able to win in March and Nowell is certainly capable of guiding K-State to their first Final Four since 1964 in head coach Jerome Tang’s first season in charge.
Prediction: Kansas State
The Spartans are well-coached and like Kansas State, also have tremendous guards that can make plays when needed and facilitate for their teammates. But the talent of Kansas State will be too much for Michigan State to overcome, with Nowell providing the difference just as he did in the Round of 32 win over Kentucky.
Why Florida Atlantic can win: Say what you want about the quality of competition that the Owls have faced on their way to the Sweet 16 (including a fortuitous matchup with Fairleigh Dickinson instead of Purdue in the Round of 32), but Dusty May’s group has picked up an incredible 33 wins this season and have the playmakers to keep the tally going. Guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin were both strong in their two wins last weekend, with Davis scoring 29 points with 12 rebounds and five assists in the win over FDU. Florida Atlantic will need both Davis and Martin to be firing on all cylinders offensively to defeat a Tennessee squad that will play the most physical, bruising style of defense that FAU has seen yet.
Why Tennessee can win: When point guard Zakai Zeigler went down with a season-ending knee injury right before the SEC Tournament, many counted out the Vols' chances of advancing deep into the tournament. Yet here we are in the Sweet 16 and Tennessee looks to have as good of a chance as any East team to advance to the Final Four. The Volunteers are physical and fundamentally sound on the defensive side, even without their floor general, and will present schematic challenges that Florida Atlantic has not seen this season. Forward Olivier Nkamhoua also went off against Duke last round with 27 points and a repeat performance from the senior would be a huge boost to Rick Barnes’ team.
Prediction: Tennessee
Florida Atlantic has been a tremendous success story this year, racking up 33 wins and advancing to the school’s first Sweet 16 in program history. But the Volunteers have seemingly found a way to win despite the absence of Zeigler and a defense like Tennessee’s will travel anywhere the Vols need to win games.
West Region (Las Vegas, NV)
Why Arkansas can win: He may be unconventional in his ways of motivating his teams, but Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman is one of the best coaches in the country. The Razorbacks are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season and this time had to knock off No. 1 Kansas to reach the stage. Freshman guard Nick Smith Jr. hasn’t been the go-to player that Arkansas imagined when he got to campus, but the three-headed guard monster of Anthony Black, Ricky Council IV, and Davonte Davis have all played well in March. The Razorbacks do play small however, and against two of the Big East’s best big men in Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, the frontcourt will need to come through to keep their season alive.
Why UConn can win: At the risk of oversimplifying this, great players elevate their teams in March and there is no greater player in this game than UConn’s frontcourt star Adama Sanogo. The 6”9 forward has been a wrecking ball against Iona and Saint Mary’s in this tournament so far, averaging 26 points and 10.5 rebounds. On top of him, backup center Donovan Clingan is a 7”2 beast in the paint that can spell Sanogo for stretches and form a dynamic combination when the two play together. UConn’s guards will certainly be tested against the Razorbacks, but the Huskies can play through their frontcourt to advance to their first Elite Eight since winning the national championship in 2014.
Prediction: UConn
Musselman will have his team ready to go against a Huskies squad favored by many, but the frontcourt mismatch will be the difference as Sanogo leads the Huskies to victory.
Why Gonzaga can win: Gonzaga may not have the star-studded roster that they have enjoyed in years past, but this is still a highly efficient, talented offense that has almost flown under the radar this year despite ranking No. 1 in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Forward Drew Timme is one of the nation’s best players and always seems to come up with clutch shots when his team needs them in March and small forward Julian Strawther is a developing star in his own right. Yes, the defense has some concerns, most recently allowing TCU to put up 81 points on Sunday, but the veteran Bulldogs will be a tough test for a UCLA team playing without potential Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark.
Why UCLA can win: In a similar way to Tennessee, many assumed that the Bruins would take a step back when news broke of Clark’s season-ending injury in early March. But outside of a close loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, that has not been the case. The experienced guard duo of Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell has kept the Bruins strong on both sides of the ball and Mick Cronin’s squad appears to have avoided another disaster with David Singleton possible to play on Thursday after sustaining an ankle injury against Northwestern. Slowing down the Gonzaga offense is no easy feat but UCLA is one of a handful of teams with the defense to do it for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Gonzaga
UCLA hasn’t seemed to miss Clark on the defensive end too much… yet, but with all due respect to UNC Asheville and Northwestern, the Zags present a much more challenging offense to scheme against. The Bruins may do enough to neutralize Timme in the high post but Strawther, forward Anton Watson, and guard Rasir Bolton will carry the Zags as they extend the nation’s longest active winning streak.
Friday, March 24
South Region (Louisville, KY)
Why San Diego State can win: The Aztecs don’t have standout star power and their style of play won’t catch a lot of attention, but SDSU has racked up 29 wins this season and has continued to beat teams with their methodical, defense-oriented approach. The Aztecs are No. 5 in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and are excellent at stopping opponents from beyond the arc. That style of play will be crucial against an Alabama team that not only loves to play fast and take a lot of threes but is also very successful when they take them and has NBA talent that Brian Dutcher’s squad won’t be able to match.
Why Alabama can win: There are not a whole lot of weaknesses for this Crimson Tide team. The team has dealt with off-the-court issues that have drawn plenty of scrutiny and attention from around the country, but on the court, Brandon Miller and the Tide have been arguably the most complete team in the country for several months now. Not only do they play an up-tempo style of offense that is hard to keep up with if you don’t have superior athletes, but they also defend exceptionally well and can play deep into their bench without losing a step. Miller may also be the most talented player in college basketball and can be a difference-maker on both ends against a San Diego State team not equipped to run with the Tide for a full 40 minutes.
Prediction: Alabama
Congratulations to Dutcher and the Aztecs on a fantastic season and for righting the Mountain West’s struggles in last season’s tournament by making it to the Sweet 16. But the road ends here for San Diego State against an Alabama team who appears to have a ready-made path to at least the Final Four.
Why Princeton can win: Well, they have already beaten two teams they weren’t supposed to get to the Sweet 16. As just the fourth No. 15 seed to ever make the Sweet 16, the Tigers are obviously the largest underdog remaining in the tournament but their play through the first two rounds should at least make others take notice. Princeton held Arizona to just 3-16 from distance in their stunning Round of 64 upset and shot 43 percent from the field in their 15-point win over Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers are finding different ways to win on the biggest stage and are doing so with a rotation featuring almost all upperclassmen. We have seen worse Cinderella teams make runs than this Princeton squad and the Ivy League champions are peaking at the right time.
Why Creighton can win: Baylor’s defense has been suspect all season and was surely a big reason for their early exit from the tournament, but the ease at which Creighton scored 85 points on the Bears in the Round of 32 should be unsettling for future opponents of the Bluejays. Guards Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander combined for 47 points and seven assists, the team shot 48 percent from two and 45 percent from three, and while center Ryan Kalkbrenner only had 10 points Sunday, the star junior had 31 in the first-round win over NC State. This is an elite offense that Greg McDermott’s team has formed in March and should be able to get to their spots early and often against Princeton’s defense.
Prediction: Creighton
I like the Tigers to give Creighton a game, particularly if Princeton can get star forward Tosan Evbuomwan involved in the post. But the Bluejays have too much firepower for the Tigers and will play for their first Final Four in school history.
Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO)
Why Miami can win: The Hurricanes may not have the size that a lot of other power conference teams have, but they certainly have talented guards. Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, and Jordan Miller have been instrumental in leading the Canes to the No. 11 offense at Kenpom and were each terrific in the Round of 32 victory over Indiana. Wong looked like a star against the Hoosiers and put in the type of performance that can carry a team to the Final Four under the right circumstances. Defensively, Miami will need those same group of guards to find a way to contain Houston guard Marcus Sasser, who scored 22 points in their win over Auburn on Saturday and appears to be on the way to regaining full health.
Why Houston can win: The Cougars entered the tournament as the betting favorite to win it all and with Sasser looking near full strength again, there is nothing that has changed that perception through the first two rounds. Outside of Sasser, guard Jamal Shead has remained one of the smartest, toughest guards in the country, and forward Jarace Walker is a skilled big that will present matchup problems for the undersized Hurricanes. One thing Houston will need to do a better job of, however, is getting off to faster starts in the first half. The Cougars have kept each of their first two games close at halftime against Northern Kentucky and Auburn before pulling away in the second half. Against a Miami offense that can put up points in a hurry, that type of play may not be sustainable.
Prediction: Houston
In what will be the closest Sweet 16 game of the week, the Hurricanes and their talented collection of offensive stars will keep the game close all night. But the Cougars have too much firepower and with Sasser healthy, will play in their third straight Elite Eight.
Why Xavier can win: With an offense that ranks third in the country in 3-point percentage and 7th in overall efficiency according to Kenpom, the Musketeers can score with any team in the country. Despite the loss of forward Zach Freemantle to season-ending foot surgery, Xavier has relied on guards Souley Boum and Colby Jones, as well as center Jack Nunge to form an inside-outside combination that can give even the best defenses in the country problems. Beyond that, senior guard Adam Kunkel has hit 10 threes over the last three games and forward Jerome Hunter, a role player in the regular season, was the team’s leading scorer through the first two rounds in Greensboro. The defense has some holes that may be exploited but the Musketeers have found success this season behind one of the country’s most talented and multi-faceted offensive attacks.
Why Texas can win: There are always exceptions to the rule, but typically, it takes a certain kind of team to be able to win consistently in March. Winning teams need to be experienced and laden with veterans that won’t allow the big moment to consume them, need to have talented and smart guards able to guide their teams through the late game situations and they need to be efficient on both ends of the floor, with the ability to score the ball well and contain their opponent’s best player. The Longhorns have all three of those, and in guard Marcus Carr and forward Dylan Disu, they have two players that can shine for a Final Four team.
Prediction: Texas
The Musketeers can put up points in a hurry, but the Longhorns are the more balanced team on both sides of the ball. Without Freemantle, expect Texas to lean heavily on Disu, who led the Longhorns with 28 points and 10 rebounds in their Round of 32 win over Penn State.
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