There are two ways to look at this upcoming slate of weekend games on the college basketball schedule, which at first glance appears relatively light.
The first way of thinking is that because there aren’t many “ranked vs. ranked” matchups, or because the intensity of rivalry weekend last week doesn’t exist this weekend, the slate will be boring, and most people will just spend their time counting down to kick off on Super Bowl Sunday.
The other point of view, and a more enjoyable point of view, is to look at this schedule through the lens of a college basketball historian. Any reasonable person who watches college basketball for long enough knows the utter chaos that this sport can bring with it on any given weekend, and in a week when not many matchups jump out at first glance… that might just be when the most chaos strikes.
Or maybe we’ll just get a bunch of games where the home favorites roll, upsets are nonexistent and the rankings remain relatively unchanged on Monday, but where is the fun in that?
I remained on a winning trajectory with my picks last weekend, picking up eight wins in 13 games, though I am kicking myself for rolling with Boise State in their matchup at San Diego State last Friday night. It is very hard to go into Viejas Arena and win, and the Broncos never really stood a chance in their 72-52 loss.
But as always, I am back to pick more games this weekend and redeem myself. Due to the lighter slate of high-major games, I also snuck a few more mid-major games into my predictions, including a pair on Friday night.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference.com/cbb, unless otherwise noted.
Last week’s record: 8-5
Season record: 39-24
Friday, Feb. 10
Saint Louis @ Dayton, 8:00 p.m., ESPN2
Both these teams are chasing VCU at the top of the Atlantic 10 right now, but a massive game between the two teams awaits Friday in Dayton. The Flyers have struggled at times offensively in 2022-23, but the defense has remained a staple of their success, including their ability to keep their opponents at bay from three. Saint Louis already struggles with connecting on their triple attempts, putting a lot of pressure on their guard trio of Gibson Jimerson, Yuri Collins and Javonte Perkins to get to the basket and make plays off the dribble. In what should be a slower, half-court style game, I’ll ride with Dayton’s pack line defense.
Prediction: Dayton
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State, 9:00 p.m., ESPNU
Another game in Dayton, OH, just down the street in the Nutter Center at Wright State. A rematch of last season’s thrilling Horizon League championship game, the Norse are looking for their second consecutive regular season sweep of the Raiders, though Wright State does hold the ultimate trump card at the moment with their win in last season’s tournament game. This game will feature a dynamic scorer on either side with Marques Warrick of NKU and Trey Calvin of Wright State both averaging over 18 points per game. The Norse will need to generate more offense around Warrick to defeat the Raiders on the road, particularly with the way that the Raiders rebound on defense and limit second-chance opportunities.
Prediction: Wright State
Saturday, Feb. 11
West Virginia @ #5 Texas, 12:00 p.m., ESPN2
Two weekends ago, a convincing loss at Tennessee could have sent the Longhorns into a spiral, especially with the rigors of the Big 12 schedule. Instead, Texas bounced back with wins over Baylor and Kansas State and narrowly lost to Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, continuing to gain momentum as March nears. Texas is experienced, is fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball, and outside of mediocre 3-point shooting numbers, doesn’t have many flaws on their team sheet. West Virginia is playing well, winning four of their last five, but beating a veteran Texas team on their home court is too tough of an ask for Bob Huggins’ team.
Prediction: Texas
Penn State @ Maryland, 12:00 p.m., BTN
Jalen Pickett. Learn the name. Penn State’s lead guard and best player has some of the best per-game averages of any player in the country this season, scoring 17.3 points per game with 7.8 rebounds and seven assists to boot. Unfortunately for Pickett, the rest of his team hasn’t gotten the memo that they are spiraling out of NCAA Tournament contention, losing each of their last three games to drop to 5-8 in the conference. A win at Maryland on Saturday is imperative for the Nittany Lions, and while Pickett is the best player on the floor, the Terrapins play a much more complete style of basketball, particularly on defense, where they have excelled this season. Mark Turgeon’s squad is No. 24 in adjusted defensive efficiency on Kenpom.com.
Prediction: Maryland
Army @ Navy, 1:30 p.m., CBSSN
While the basketball version of this historic rivalry won’t get nearly the same attention as its’ football counterpart, Army vs. Navy remains a classic tradition in college athletics. On the court this year, both of these teams are quite similar, with Army coming in at 8-5 in conference play and Navy right behind at 7-6. Both teams are among the nation’s best at shooting the three, particularly Navy at No. 15 in the country. Navy guards Tyler Nelson and Sean Yoder will need to be firing on all cylinders to defeat a sound offensive team in Army, but the Midshipmen are certainly capable of that as they go for the regular season sweep of Army.
Prediction: Navy
#3 Alabama @ Auburn, 2:00 p.m., ESPN
The 2:00 clock window on Saturday looks like the best collection of games this weekend, headlined by this SEC battle between the Crimson Tide and the Tigers. There’s not much to say about this Alabama team that hasn’t already been said. Simply put, they are an elite college basketball squad and one that is very capable of reaching the Final Four and cutting down the nets in April. Brandon Miller is one of the best players in the country, the Tide hold their opponents to the No. 2 effective field goal percentage in the county according to Kenpom and have not lost an SEC game all year (11-0). Auburn will keep it close at home, but a lack of offensive firepower will be the Tigers’ unraveling.
Prediction: Alabama
One of two ranked vs. ranked matchups on the schedule this weekend, the Huskies have a tall task against this Creighton team right now. Not only are the Bluejays playing at home, but they have also won seven games in a row and five of them by double digits. Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is a force and will have an entertaining matchup with UConn center Adama Sanogo, but the Bluejays can beat you in other ways also, including with their perimeter duo of Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman. The Huskies are a significantly better offensive rebounding team, which could allow them to sneak out a road win, but Creighton is playing too well on both sides of the ball to pick against them this weekend.
Prediction: Creighton
#24 Rutgers @ Illinois, 2:00 p.m., FS1
Do you like good, old-fashioned, physical Big Ten games? This Rutgers-Illinois game is for you. Both teams rely on a stingy defense to win games in one of the toughest leagues in the country, and both teams have continued to find success through that this season. Rutgers comes into the game at No. 2 in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, but the offense gives cause for concern. As seen in their loss to Indiana on Tuesday night, the Scarlet Knights don’t have a go-to guy on offense and their scoring can stagnate as a result. I’m not overly enthusiastic about Illinois’ offense either, but I like the Illini to score enough points to squeak out the home win, even with Rutgers suffocating defense.
Prediction: Illinois
Clemson @ North Carolina, 2:00 p.m., ESPN2
It’s hard to write off the Tar Heels after what they accomplished in last season’s NCAA Tournament and with the talent they have, but something has to change quickly for Hubert Davis’ team. North Carolina has lost three in a row, is 7-6 in the ACC, and is on the fringe of the tournament. A win over Clemson at home is a must if UNC is going to start gaining momentum going into March. Fortunately for Carolina, the Tigers are also in a slump, losing two in a row in conference play. Clemson also struggles to rebound consistently, which should be music to the ears of UNC center Armando Bacot. The 6”10 senior averages 17.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game and will be the difference as the Tar Heels snap their skid.
Prediction: North Carolina
Duke @ #8 Virginia, 4:00 p.m., ESPN
Monday night’s loss at Miami notwithstanding, and honestly, the Blue Devils were due for a loss in that game after an emotional win over UNC just two days prior, Duke has been playing inspiring basketball of late. Jon Scheyer’s team is beginning to get healthy again, and the play of freshman forward Dereck Lively II has been huge in the frontcourt. Virginia is going to play the same style that they always have under Tony Bennett, keeping the game in the half-court with a slow tempo, but the Blue Devils can win games like that, especially with their offensive rebounding and free throw shooting abilities. It will take a near complete game to pull off the road victory but Duke can become the talk of the country with a win over the Cavs on their home court.
Prediction: Duke
Much of this game hangs on the health of TCU guard and star player Mike Miles Jr., who has missed each of the last three games, two of which the Horned Frogs have lost. If Miles is healthy enough to go, the Horned Frogs can certainly win a game against a tough Baylor squad, due in part to their solid defensive scheme that could keep the Bears in check. Then again, this is not a Baylor team that I would want any part of playing right now if I were a head coach, with Scott Drew’s team winning eight of nine since Jan. 11 and doing so with one of the most efficient offenses in the land. Too many questions around Miles have me leaning toward Baylor.
Prediction: Baylor
#7 UCLA @ Oregon, 10:00 p.m., ESPN
The Bruins had a slight dip for two games at the end of January, losing to both Arizona and USC and sending concerns about Mick Cronin’s offense. But the Bruins and their leading scorer Jaime Jaquez Jr. appear to be rolling again. Lost in the shuffle between Zach Edey and Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jaquez is quietly putting together an All-American season and has turned it up even more over the Bruins’ last three games (15.3 PPG, 12.3 RPG.) The Ducks are fighting for their NCAA Tournament berth, and while they should make it interesting on Saturday night, the veteran Bruins are not a team that can be upset easily, especially with a defense that travels well.
Prediction: UCLA
Sunday, Feb. 12
#1 Purdue @ Northwestern, 2:00 p.m., BTN
Apparently, there’s a bigger game in the sports world on Sunday than this one. Any idea what that might be? All kidding aside, the Boilermakers could be in for a tough test when they visit Northwestern on Sunday. As always, the key to slowing down Purdue is slowing down Edey in the post, which few teams have the talent or personnel to do, including Northwestern. With that said, the Wildcats do have size inside with 7”0 center Matthew Nicholson who will be instrumental to their chances. The main problem for Northwestern, however, is they don’t rebound well, and against the Boilermakers, opponents must be able to beat them (more specifically Edey) on the boards, or the chances of an upset significantly dwindle.
Prediction: Purdue
Bonus Prediction
Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 6:30 p.m., FOX
Why not throw in a prediction for Super Bowl LVII on here for good measure? Both teams have a dynamic quarterback on their side with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, while the Eagles seem to have a slight edge on defense and in their skill group on offense. Mahomes’ ankle injury could be a factor to keep an eye on, but he threw for 326 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Bengals in the AFC Championship so that shouldn’t be too grave of a concern. Most Super Bowl matchups tend to be difficult to predict, but this one feels even more so with the spread currently at Philadelphia -1.5. When it comes to the NFL, my philosophy tends to lean toward picking the team with the better quarterback and the better coach. With all due respect to the wonderful work done this year by Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni, the Chiefs have the advantage in both of those categories as they go for their second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
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