With the arrival of February, we have officially reached the meaty part of college basketball’s conference schedule, and this upcoming weekend may just be the best slate of games that we have seen since the calendar flipped to 2023.
The epic, historical rivalry between North Carolina and Duke will rightfully get most of the attention this weekend as the two teams meet for the 259th time in the history of the two programs. Despite both teams turning to new eras with their respective programs, the reverence and intensity of the rivalry will be on full display once again Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
But to only talk about the Tar Heels and Blue Devils this weekend would not be doing justice to the rest of the country, as marquee games abound throughout the weekend in many different conferences, including the ACC, Big 12, and West Coast Conference.
I had another solid week of making predictions this weekend, once again coming in with an 8-4 record in the 12 games I picked. Looking back, picking Kentucky to hand Kansas their fourth consecutive loss may have been misguided, but the Wildcats had the opportunity to win that game if they had not shot 2-13 from three and allowed the undersized Jayhawks to outrebound them.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference.com/cbb, unless otherwise noted.
Last week’s record: 8-4
Season Record: 31-19
Friday, Feb. 3
Boise State @ #22 San Diego State, 9:00 p.m., FS1
Before the plethora of outstanding games on Saturday, a Mountain West clash between two of the league’s top teams should provide plenty of entertainment. Both the Broncos and the Aztecs should be safely in the NCAA Tournament at this moment, but a win for either team would solidify their resumes, particularly Boise State. Outside of a neutral site win over Texas A&M and home wins over Utah State and Nevada, Boise State and their high-level defense do not have a standout win. San Diego State has run into trouble scoring the ball at times this year, and may not be able to find success against a Boise State team that holds opponents to 27.5 percent from 3 and limits second-chance opportunities.
Prediction: Boise State
Kent State @ Akron, 9:00 p.m., ESPNU
As Carolina and Duke take center stage this weekend, another rivalry in the MAC may be just as contentious on the court. Kent State and Akron will face off Friday night in a rematch from a heated MAC Tournament final in 2022, a game in which Akron rolled Kent State to advance to the NCAA Tournament. This time around, however, the Golden Flashes should be able to get the job done. At 18-4 overall, Kent State is No. 69 at Kenpom.com and is paced by one of the league’s best players in guard Sincere Carry. The defense has been a focal point of Kent State’s success this season and should carry over against an Akron team that shoots only 33 percent from long-range and 43 percent overall.
Prediction: Kent State
Saturday, Feb. 4
The Big 12 grind continues for both schools, which are trending in the opposite direction going into Saturday. The Jayhawks have snapped out of their mini skid by winning back-to-back games over Kentucky and Kansas State, while the Cyclones got rolled by Missouri on the road and then gave Texas Tech their first conference win of the season on Monday. A veteran Iowa State squad should get their issues ironed out ahead of March, but that may be a tough ask for Saturday. Kansas forward Jalen Wilson continues to cement his status as an All-American, averaging 26.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists over his last five games. If not for Zach Edey, Wilson may be the National Player of the Year frontrunner at this stage of the season.
Prediction: Kansas
Michigan State @ Rutgers, 12:00 p.m., FOX
Not many expected Michigan State to go into Mackey Arena and beat the Boilermakers last Sunday afternoon, but the result was even worse than anticipated for Tom Izzo’s team. The Spartans were never competitive against an Edey-led Purdue team that shot 50 percent from the floor and rolled to an easy win. At 14-8 overall and 6-5 in the Big Ten, the Spartans should still be in the NCAA Tournament conversation, but losses in four of their last six games don’t have this team going in the right direction at the moment. They will head to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to face Rutgers and their No. 2 defense on Kenpom. Not an easy task for a team that hasn’t cracked the 75-point mark since Dec. 30 against Buffalo.
Prediction: Rutgers
It’s hard to be worried about a Tennessee team that plays the type of suffocating, meticulous defense that the Vols play, but their occasional offensive slumps do flash some concern. Take Wednesday night’s loss to Florida, for example, when the team scored only 54 points and shot 32 percent from 2, or the loss to Kentucky last month when they went just 3-21 from three. Tennessee is a really good team whose defense could carry them far into March, but as we know, one off night in the NCAA Tournament can be the difference in moving on or an early exit. Fortunately for Rick Barnes’ squad, they will have a bounce-back opportunity Saturday against a scuffling Auburn team. Auburn is one of the worst shooting teams in the SEC, and while they may also be able to limit the Vols on defense, the Tigers could struggle to crack 50 points on the road.
Prediction: Tennessee
#15 TCU @ Oklahoma State, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+
Oklahoma State seems to fly under the radar in the grand scheme of the Big 12, which has some of the country’s best teams in Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State, to name a few. But these Cowboys shouldn’t be taken lightly, mainly because of the defense that Mike Boynton’s team plays. Outside of a Jan. 24 loss to Texas, Oklahoma State has held four of their last five opponents to 61 points or fewer. The issue comes on offense however, where the team does not have a go-to scorer and may need someone to match TCU guard Mike Miles Jr. If you’re a fan of threes, maybe don’t watch this game. Oklahoma State is 263rd in the country in 3-point percentage according to Kenpom, while TCU is an even worse 344th.
Prediction: TCU
Two ranked teams will go head-to-head in the ACC on Saturday, and it’s not North Carolina and Duke. Both the Hurricanes and the Tigers have enjoyed successful regular seasons so far, with Clemson leading the league at 10-2. Of course, the Tigers have also notched some very questionable losses this season, most recently a 62-54 loss at Boston College Tuesday night. On the other side, guard Isaiah Wong and the Miami offense are one of the most efficient units in the nation, ranking in the top 25 in 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage, and effective field goal percentage, according to Kenpom. Picking Miami over Pittsburgh last weekend burned me, but I’m going back to the Hurricanes’ well one more time.
Prediction: Miami
This may be nitpicking the Boilermakers, but one thing to note about their very impressive 22-1 record is that they have not had to face too many challenging road environments to this point. Road wins over Ohio State and Michigan State were nice, but a trip to Assembly Hall should provide a stiff challenge for Matt Painter’s bunch. As is the key for anyone facing Purdue, Indiana will have to find a way to neutralize their offensive machine, and forward Trayce Jackson-Davis will certainly be a challenge for Edey on defense. Indiana’s success on Saturday may be predicated on guard Jalen Hood-Schifino. Can the freshman play the way he did against Ohio State last weekend (24 points, 6-9 3-point) or will he revert to his play in a loss at Maryland this week (3 points, 1-14 FG, four TOs)?
Prediction: Purdue
Jerome Tang’s Kansas State team has hit their first true slump of the season, losing two of three, including back-to-back Big 12 conference losses. Included in that is their most recent loss to Kansas on Tuesday night at Allen Fieldhouse, as the Wildcats gave up 90 points in the defeat. That doesn’t bode well for K-State as they prepare to face a Texas team that ranks 12th in the country in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency stat. The Longhorns predicate the defense on forcing turnovers, which Kansas State has struggled with at times in conference play. It will be a tough road environment for Texas, but I like the Longhorns to keep it rolling after their win over Baylor on Monday night.
Prediction: Texas
North Carolina @ Duke, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
For only the third time in the history of this heated rivalry, both North Carolina and Duke will each enter Saturday’s game between the two teams as unranked schools, according to an article from Sports Illustrated. That is a rare occurrence, but it doesn’t change the intensity and the stakes in this game. The Tar Heels had won four in a row entering the week but slipped up Wednesday by dropping a game at home to Pittsburgh, while Duke has won two in a row. The Blue Devils are starting to get healthier with the return of point guard Jeremy Roach and the upcoming return of forward Dariq Whitehead. North Carolina, on paper at least, seems to have the more productive group of starters, led by Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis, though Duke is at home and playing their best basketball of the season the last two weeks. If Duke can get more production from freshman forward Dereck Lively alongside Kyle Filipowski, the Blue Devils may be able to counter the play of Bacot and do just enough to defeat the Heels on their home court.
Prediction: Duke
Oregon @ Arizona State, 10:00 p.m., ESPN2
After a sizzling 6-1 start to conference play, Arizona State seems to have fallen back where they belong in the Pac-12, losing each of its last four games. It’s not that the Sun Devils are necessarily a bad team. In fact, their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 39th in the country on Kenpom, but the offense is truly a horrific sight. Arizona State is 282nd in the country in 3-point percentage, 248th in 2-point percentage, and 247th in free throw percentage. Of course, Oregon isn’t going to blow teams away with their offensive ability, particularly when they start hoisting up their own triples, but it’s a more cohesive unit than Arizona State and with the Ducks playing much better of late, the edge seems to point in the direction of Dana Altman’s club.
Prediction: Oregon
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are the class of the conference once again in 2022-23. Although this season, it may just be the Gaels that have the more complete roster. The Zags have not looked nearly as dominant as in seasons past, losing at home to Loyola Marymount, while narrowly grabbing wins from San Francisco and BYU. Saint Mary’s on the other hand is undefeated in conference, with a sparkling No. 7 overall rating on Kenpom. Much of Gonzaga’s problems this season have been concentrated on defense, and if the Gaels are able to get an offensive rhythm going behind their backcourt of Aidan Maheney and Logan Johnson, an upset could be brewing late Saturday night.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s
Sunday, Feb. 5
Ohio State @ Michigan, 1:00 p.m., CBS
While the basketball version of the rivalry will obviously never match up with the football equivalent, the Buckeyes and Wolverines find themselves in a massive game on Sunday in the Big Ten standings, with the rivalry element looming over it as well. Both teams are fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament and could each help themselves tremendously by stringing together a winning streak. Ohio State, led by freshman sensation Brice Sensabaugh, is a highly efficient team on offense, yet the Buckeyes have lost seven of their last eight and are just 3-7 in Big Ten play. Ohio State is also an undersized team, with 6”8 forward Zed Key as their tallest rotational player, and Michigan center Hunter Dickinson is primed for a big game against that frontcourt.
Prediction: Michigan
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