A valuable lesson when trying to correctly predict the winners of college basketball games: trust your first instinct.
Last Friday, I released my latest weekly column detailing the best games of the weekend and which team I thought was going to come away victorious and was faced with a choice between Wisconsin and Indiana in a crucial Big Ten game at Assembly Hall Saturday afternoon.
The Hoosiers were not playing like the team many expected them to be in the preseason and had lost three straight going into their matchup with the Badgers. Regardless, I liked the matchup for Mike Woodson’s squad on paper, mainly because of the sheer dominance that Trayce Jackson-Davis brings to the floor each night, and I confidently picked Indiana.
Right before I published the article, I bought into the noise surrounding Indiana’s struggles and changed my pick to Wisconsin.
After a slow first half, Indiana dominated in the second half and went on to win by 18. SMH.
As I said, let that be a lesson when picking college basketball games. (That, and frequently choose the team with the best player on the floor because Jackson-Davis is really good at basketball). I am going to do my best to heed that advice as we head into a new weekend of exciting college basketball games to choose from.
Aside from the Indiana debacle, I was quite successful last week, going 8-5 in my picks while correctly predicting that Clemson would upset Duke and that NC State would find a way to defeat Miami behind their star-studded backcourt.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference.com/cbb, unless otherwise noted.
Last week’s record: 8-5
Season record: 15-11
Friday, Jan. 20
Boise State @ New Mexico, 11:00 p.m., FS1
Only one game of note on Friday night and it won’t tip off until 11 p.m. on the east coast, but it should be an excellent test for each of these Mountain West squads. New Mexico is coming off a terrific road win at San Diego State last weekend, as Richard Pitino continues to guide his team to a potential at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. They will host a Boise State team that is 5-1 in conference play and No. 24 at Kenpom. After two early non-conference losses to South Dakota State and Charlotte, the Broncos have turned it around behind one of the nation’s best defenses and an All-MWC performer in Tyson Degenhart. New Mexico will need to capitalize on 3-point opportunities to avoid the home upset.
Prediction: New Mexico
Saturday, Jan. 21
#17 Miami @ Duke, 12:00 p.m., ESPN
It’s been a trying season offensively in Jon Scheyer’s first season at the helm at Duke. While the Blue Devils are among the best in the country in offensive rebounding and free throw shooting, they are also among the worst in the country at 3-point shooting. Freshman Kyle Filipowski has been sensational (14.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG.), but the rest of the Blue Devils have been underwhelming. In an interesting contrast, Duke will look to get back in the win column Saturday against a great shooting team in Miami that has struggled on the defensive end. Home-court advantage may be the difference here for Duke, but Miami can certainly score enough points to keep it close throughout the afternoon.
Prediction: Duke
There may not be a team that has more perfectly epitomized the rigors of the Big 12 this season than TCU. After beating Texas Tech and Baylor to begin conference play, the Frogs lost two in a row to Iowa State and Texas, beat Kansas State (who just beat Kansas), and then lost to West Virginia on Wednesday night. The takeaway? The Big 12 is quite good and even very talented teams like TCU are going to lose a lot of games. The schedule will ease up a little for the Horned Frogs starting next week, but first, a trip to Allen Fieldhouse awaits. Kansas star forward Jalen Wilson poured in 38 points in Tuesday’s loss and continues to solidify his status as one of the best players in the country.
Prediction: Kansas
With all due respect to Arizona State, Utah and the remaining Pac-12 schools fighting to earn an at-large bid in the tournament, the Pac-12 is a two-team race between the two programs facing off on Saturday afternoon. Arizona has a dominant frontcourt duo of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo, though inconsistency from their guards has led to high amounts of turnovers and at times, inefficient 3-point shooting. On the other side, UCLA has the nation’s third-longest winning streak at 14 games, and is led by two talented veterans in Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. The Bruins have shown few weaknesses all season, and outside of monster games from the Arizona forwards, seem to have the edge in this one, even on the road.
Prediction: UCLA
#10 Virginia @ Wake Forest, 2:00, ESPNU
One of the more underrated storylines of the 2022-23 season so far: Virginia is back. After winning the national title in 2019, the Cavaliers have not won an NCAA Tournament game since and missed the tournament altogether last season. But Tony Bennett may just have a vintage Virginia squad this season. Bennett’s squad is the fourth-most experienced in the country per Kenpom, takes care of the ball on offense and plays stingy defense in the half-court. Virginia should be tested on the road against a good offense in Wake Forest, but Virginia has a way of making good offenses look paltry at times.
Prediction: Virginia
#20 Marquette @ Seton Hall, 4:00 p.m., CBSSN
Speaking of good offenses, if you haven’t seen Marquette play yet this season, you’re missing out. According to Kenpom, Marquette is No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 1 in 2-point field goal percentage and has scored at least 75 points in each of their last five games, going 4-1 in that span. The Golden Eagles, led by guard Kam Jones and forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper, will take their up-tempo attack to Seton Hall on Saturday, where Shaheen Holloway has his team bought into a tough defensive mentality. The Pirates should be able to slow down Marquette to a degree, but a Seton Hall offense ranked No. 243 in the country in effective field goal percentage will not be able to keep up.
Prediction: Marquette
Belmont @ Bradley, 4:00 p.m., ESPN+
How about some love for the mid-majors? Yeah, the Power 5 conferences and the perennial NCAA tournament contenders take up many of the headlines on conference weekends, but they are not the only teams in action. Belmont, in their first season in the Missouri Valley, has quickly established itself as a contender for the conference crown, spearheaded by an excellent three-point shooting attack. Saturday could be their toughest remaining road test, however, as Bradley is disciplined on the defensive end and forces plenty of turnovers. Also, of note: Kenpom’s “Home Court Ratings” ranking lists Bradley as the 9th-best home court in the country. The Braves are 10-0 at home this season.
Prediction: Bradley
NC State @ North Carolina, 5:00 p.m., SECN
You may have noticed in my weekend preview article last weekend, but I am really starting to like this NC State team. The backcourt trio of Terquavion Smith, Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell is not only among the best in the ACC, but the country as well. All three average at least 12 points per game and shoot over 33 percent from three, while spearheading an offense that doesn’t turn the ball over frequently. A rivalry game at North Carolina is a tough ask however, and much of the outcome could come down to how well the Wolfpack can defend Armando Bacot in the post. Bacot played only one minute in the Tar Heels’ loss at Virginia due to an injury, but has averaged 19.6 points and 13.4 rebounds in his other five conference games.
Prediction: North Carolina
#4 Alabama @ Missouri, 6:00 p.m., SECN
What an incredible first season so far for first-year head coach Dennis Gates at Missouri. After losing 21 games last year, the Tigers turned to Gates and he has delivered. At 14-4, Missouri is No. 7 in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and fourth in the nation in the two-point shooting. While home wins over Illinois, Kentucky and Arkansas are solid, a win over Alabama on Saturday would be the signature win of the season and could cement the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament chances. The Tide, however, is arguably the best team in the country, led by star freshman Brandon Miller (20.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Alabama is one of just three squads to rank in the top 13 in the country in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, alongside national title contenders Houston and UCLA.
Prediction: Alabama
#7 Texas @ West Virginia, 6:00 p.m., ESPN
Another shining example of the Big 12 being the hardest, sometimes incomprehensible conference that it is: West Virginia, who is ranked No. 22 at Kenpom, yet sits at 1-5 in the conference and just earned their first conference win Wednesday against TCU. It’s hard to find a trait that the Mountaineers are excellent at, but the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and Bob Huggins has earned the benefit of the doubt with his teams. As for Texas, the Longhorns had won three in a row before stumbling at Iowa State earlier this week and are now 4-2 in America’s toughest league. The Longhorns won’t rely on the three, but if they can get their shots to fall from inside the arc, Texas should fight off West Virginia in a tough road environment.
Prediction: Texas
USC @ Arizona State, 10:00 p.m., ESPNU
Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley deserves a lot of credit for molding these Sun Devils into an excellent defensive team. While his early teams in Tempe struggled to consistently guard well, Hurley’s teams the last two seasons have ranked No. 27 and No. 36 in adjusted defensive efficiency, while a balanced offense now has five players averaging double-figures. That stout Arizona State defense may be the difference Saturday night against USC, who have struggled all season with consistently putting the ball in the bucket. After two straight wins over Colorado and Utah, the Trojans were noncompetitive against Arizona Thursday night, in no small part because they shot 36 percent from the field and 4-17 from beyond the arc.
Prediction: Arizona State
Sunday, Jan. 22
Michigan State @ Indiana, 12:00 p.m., CBS
As a precursor to the NFL divisional round on Sunday afternoon, the Spartans and Hoosiers will each be looking for their second conference win this week. The Spartans held Rutgers to 2-17 3-point shooting in Thursday’s double-digit win, while the Hoosiers may be turning it around following a 15-point road win over Illinois. The key to any Indiana game seems to be forward Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is a lock for at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. Expect a physical, grind-it-out type of Big Ten game, with Indiana extending their win streak to three games (that’s right, I’m not picking against them this time.)
Prediction: Indiana
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