For the third time this season, and the second time in as many weeks, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens will go head-to-head on the gridiron, with this final matchup carrying the most weight.
The Bengals come into Sunday as the hottest team in the AFC, winners of eight games in a row to end the season 12-4. After a 32-13 beatdown from the Browns on Monday Night Football back on Halloween night, the Bengals have not lost a game, relying on the right arm of MVP candidate Joe Burrow and explosive offensive playmakers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Burrow turned in a sour performance to begin the season in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, turning the ball over five times with four interceptions, but the former No. 1 overall pick out of LSU has been in the top tier of quarterbacks since that September loss. Excluding the Week 1 dud, Burrow threw 33 touchdowns to eight interceptions, completed 68.9 percent of his passes, and averaged 7.48 yards per attempt.
Burrow’s performance and ability to guide the Bengals to their second consecutive AFC North division championship has placed him squarely in the conversation for MVP, alongside the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen.
On defense, the Bengals have suffered numerous injuries to key players, but have weathered those obstacles to form one of the best statistical units in the NFL. While the Bengals rank 19th in the league with 5.4 yards per play allowed, opposing teams have struggled to find the endzone against Lou Anarumo’s squad. Cincinnati ranks sixth-best in the NFL with 20.1 points allowed per game.
A season-ending ACL injury to top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie has pressed rookie cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt and veteran Eli Apple into substantial roles on the outside. Defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard have also dealt with injuries late in the season, though both played in Week 18 against Baltimore and figure to remain active on Sunday.
As for the Ravens, losses in three of their final four regular-season games resulted in the team ceding control of the AFC North to the Bengals late in the season as the Ravens settled for the No. 6 seed in the AFC. Due to new rules implemented by the NFL following the cancellation of the Buffalo-Cincinnati game, a Baltimore win in Week 18 could have forced a coin flip to determine home-field advantage for this Wild Card matchup.
Instead, the Ravens will travel back to Paycor Stadium for the second week in a row on Sunday, looking to avenge their 27-16 defeat in Week 18.
For Baltimore, the story of their season can be broken down into two halves: with Lamar Jackson and without him. Jackson started the first 11 games of the season for the Ravens, guiding them to a 7-4 record with his dual-threat passing and rushing ability. Jackson has not played since suffering a knee injury in Week 13 against the Broncos, however, and while the Ravens did hang on to beat Denver and improve to 8-4, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley has not had the same success that Jackson did.
With a rather pedestrian offense over the past month and a half, the Ravens have relied on a stout defense to lead them into the postseason, a staple of some of the best John Harbaugh-coached teams of the past. The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL in 2022, while also ranking among the 10 best teams in total sacks (48), passing touchdowns allowed (20), rushing yards per attempt (3.9), and takeaways (25).
An already strong Baltimore defense received a midseason boost when the team traded for Bears linebacker Roquan Smith, a quick, rangy player who causes havoc for opposing teams in the middle of the field. In nine games with the Ravens, Smith has seven tackles for loss, two sacks and three pass deflections. Smith was named to the Pro Bowl for the first time this season and on Monday, signed a lucrative five-year, $100 million extension to remain in Baltimore long-term.
Sunday’s game features two teams trending in the opposite direction on paper, but in the playoffs, particularly in which two divisional teams face off, anything can happen. The AFC Wild Card game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. on NBC.
Here are some additional storylines that I will be watching as the Ravens and Bengals meet in the playoffs for the first time in the history of the rivalry.
The injury status of Lamar Jackson
With Jackson in the lineup, the Ravens' offense has clearly been much more efficient, both in their ability to score points and consistently move the ball down the field. With Jackson starting (excluding the Week 12 game in which he went down early), the Ravens have averaged 25 points per game, with the 26-year-old Jackson passing for 2,242 yards and rushing for another 764 yards with 20 total touchdowns.
Following Jackson’s injury and the subsequent switch to Huntley and third-string quarterback Anthony Brown in Week 18, Baltimore has stagnated on the offensive side, averaging a paltry 12.5 points per game amid a 3-3 record to close the year. Huntley tossed three interceptions to just two touchdowns and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. Brown was just as bad in his one start last week, tossing a pair of interceptions while completing only 44 percent of his pass attempts.
Reports from Baltimore so far this week have been bleak as to the likelihood of Jackson suiting up. Jackson has not practiced at all since suffering the injury, and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on Wednesday morning that Jackson “faces an uphill battle” for this week’s playoff game.
If Jackson is unable to go, the Ravens will turn to Tyler Huntley for his first career postseason start.
How will the Bengals replace Alex Cappa on the offensive line?
The Bengals were dealt a potentially crushing blow in the third quarter of Sunday’s game, as right guard Alex Cappa fell to the ground with an injury and was later carted to the locker room. Cappa, in his first season with the Bengals after signing a three-year contract this past offseason, is a key piece of the Bengals’ offensive line tasked with keeping Burrow upright.
While no official report has been released yet by the Bengals regarding Cappa’s status, head coach Zac Taylor sounded pessimistic about Cappa’s availability for Sunday.
“We'll see. It'll be tough this week," Taylor told reporters at Paycor Stadium on Monday.
The Bengals turned to fourth-year pro, Max Scharping in Cappa’s absence for the final quarter on Sunday, with Scharping playing a season-high 14 snaps. The former Houston Texan will be asked to play much more if Cappa indeed misses time with the left ankle injury.
Much was made of the Bengals’ inability to protect Burrow during last year’s Super Bowl run, and while the unit has been collectively better this season, untimely injuries could derail that progress at the most crucial time. In addition to Cappa, right tackle La’el Collins is out for the season with a knee injury. Hakeem Adeniji has started in place of Collins.
The Ravens sit 25th in the league with a 19.2 percent pressure rate on passing plays, though Baltimore has made the most out of the opportunities they have had, generating 48 sacks, fifth best in the NFL.
Running games trending in opposite directions
As the regular season ended, the Ravens and Bengals were trending in opposite directions when it came to success in the running game. Of course, stylistically the Ravens are more dependent on the ground game than Cincinnati is, but the contrast over the last several weeks has been stark.
Baltimore, despite the absence of Jackson since early December, has run for at least 110 yards per game every week since Week 14, the first week that Huntley drew the start. The low mark of 110 came in Week 18 when the Ravens were without running back J.K. Dobbins, who was listed as inactive.
Dobbins missed nine weeks of game action throughout the season, but has come on strong over the last month, averaging nearly seven yards per carry over his last four outings. For the season, the Ravens are seventh in the league in rushing attempts, second in total rushing yards and third in yards per rushing attempt. Running the football is a huge part of the Ravens’ identity and with Dobbins back in the fold for the playoff game, that reliance should continue.
As for Cincinnati, the Bengals have dealt with inconsistency in the running game all season long, a problem magnified by injuries on the offensive line and to starting running back Joe Mixon.
Mixon is fully healthy now, but the Bengals have not surpassed 75 yards rushing since Week 14 against the Browns, a team with one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. In the Week 18 win over the Ravens, Cincinnati mustered only 55 rushing yards on 20 attempts. That’s only 2.75 yards per carry.
When Mixon missed time in November and early December with an injury, Samaje Perine filled in admirably, rushing for 194 yards in three games, along with 14 receptions for 136 yards and four total touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. Since that time, however, Perine’s production has dropped off considerably amid lesser usage, totaling only 67 yards on 3.19 yards per attempt.
The Bengals are not going to rely on the running game to win in the playoffs. That distinction obviously falls on the right arm of Burrow and the explosive wide receiver trio of Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Regardless, the strengths of the passing game are often accentuated when Mixon and Perine are threats to break off long runs, and not simply goal-line options. The Bengals can rely on Burrow to do the heavy lifting on offense, as evidenced in the team’s Week 16 win over the Patriots (442 total yards: 369 passing, 73 rushing), but a balanced effort is much more sustainable when facing Super Bowl contenders such as Buffalo and Kansas City.
The success that each team can muster on the ground could be a massive turning point in Sunday’s win-or-go-home affair, particularly as the Ravens turn to Huntley and the Bengals break in another new starter on the offensive line.
Final Thoughts
Divisional playoff games can be tricky. Divisional games in general can be hard to pinpoint, but by the time the playoffs roll around, divisional teams are meeting for the third time in the same season and have already seen what the other has on both offense and defense. It’s unlikely that the Bengals and Ravens will be learning much new information about their opponent on Sunday.
So, with that, the questions come down to which team is better and which team will play better. The Bengals seem like the answer to both of these questions.
The running problems that Cincinnati has endured are a concern, as is the injury to Cappa, but Cincinnati is on an eight-game winning streak entering play, during which they have had to win in a multitude of ways and against teams with much more offensive firepower than the Ravens. Even with Jackson in the lineup, which seems unlikely at this point, an opportunistic Bengals defense will force Huntley into mistakes, and head coach Zac Taylor will put the ball in the hands of Burrow when they need a big play, much like they did on their way to Super Bowl LVI a year ago.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 16
All statistics and records are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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