Before the 2022 NFL season began, I wrote two articles that attempted to predict how each team would fare during the regular season. In the article, I included the team’s projected record, where I thought they would finish within their division, and a brief synopsis of the state of the organization back in September.
With the regular season now officially wrapped up and the playoffs beginning this weekend, this time is a great opportunity to look back at those predictions and see the results.
Of course, an NFL season is often unpredictable, sometimes chaotic, and never boring, meaning some of the prognostications that I made at the beginning of the season look… well not so smart with the benefit of hindsight (thanks Indianapolis). But regardless, a look back at how the season unfolded is a great way to process the results before the playoffs and give me a chance to pat myself on the back for the (few) predictions that I did get correct (thank you Chicago).
AFC Predictions here.
NFC Predictions here.
All statistics and records are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted.
AFC East
Preseason Prediction
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
2. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
3. New England Patriots (6-11)
4. New York Jets (6-11)
Off to a great start! I correctly predicted the finish for all four teams in the AFC East, though the records were slightly off. The Bills came into the season as Super Bowl favorites and did little in the regular season to change that perception. Josh Allen won’t be the MVP in 2022 but he remained a top-tier quarterback for a team whose defense allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL. The Dolphins got off to a blazing start through the first half of the season, winning eight of their first 11 games before they tumbled to the finish line and lost five of their last six. Regardless, Miami snuck into the playoff field and will now head to Buffalo as their quarterback situation remains in flux due to the uncertain status of quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater. The Patriots were better than I thought they would be this season, even staying in playoff contention through the end of the regular season, but a serious lack of an identity on offense limited Bill Belichick’s group the whole season and reminded me why I picked the team to lose 11 games this season. The Jets may have finished in last place this year, but the pieces of a contending team are clearly there outside of the quarterback spot. Neither Zach Wilson nor Mike White proved to be the long-term answer under center for Robert Saleh and New York, but rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner and wide receiver Garrett Wilson look like stars. With an upgrade at QB, the Jets should be contenders to compete for at least a Wild Card berth next season.
Final Standings
1. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
2. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
3. New England Patriots (8-9)
4. New York Jets (7-10)
AFC North
Preseason Predictions
1. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
3. Cleveland Browns (8-9)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)
An 0-2 start to the season looked worrisome for Joe Burrow and the Bengals at the beginning of the year, but Cincinnati rebounded to become the hottest AFC team going into the playoffs. After a five-turnover performance in Week 1, Burrow led the Bengals to 12 wins in their final 14 games and has kept the team unbeaten since the end of October. Much credit should be given to the Bengals’ defense as well, which battled numerous injuries to rank sixth in the league in points allowed and 11th in total takeaways. The Ravens finished the season at 10-7, though Baltimore probably feels that they could have won more than they did. Quarterback Lamar Jackson missed the final five games of the season with a knee injury, during which the Ravens lost three games to their division rivals. Baltimore gets another crack at the team that beat them in Week 18, the Bengals, in the AFC Wild Card round this Sunday night. In the preseason, I predicted that Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons would end, and I came up just short with my thought. Tomlin’s Steelers defeated Cleveland in Week 18, ensuring that the head coach has not finished with a losing record during his 16 seasons at the helm in Pittsburgh. The Browns began the season in turmoil with the suspension of quarterback Deshaun Watson. Cleveland turned to Jacoby Brissett until Watson was eligible at the beginning of December, and Brissett was serviceable, though not able to lift a team with a lack of wide receiver talent and a porous run defense from the bottom of the AFC North. The Browns will look forward to a full season of Watson in 2023, with the hope of rekindling his excellent 2018-20 seasons with the Texans.
Final Standings
1. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
4. Cleveland Browns (7-10)
AFC West
Preseason Predictions
1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
3. Denver Broncos (10-7)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
A lesson I learned this season: doubt Patrick Mahomes at your own peril. Despite losing one of the league’s best receivers in Tyreek Hill and practically restructuring the entire offensive skill group outside of Travis Kelce, Mahomes was still among the best passers in the league. He led the NFL in touchdown passes (41) and passing yards (5,250) and was second in yards per attempt (8.1) while leading the Chiefs to the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. While my prediction for the Chargers may seem a little too high looking back on it, I don’t believe it was a preposterous idea for Los Angeles to challenge KC for the division crown. The Chargers dealt with a myriad number of injuries to key players this year, including Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James, and still managed to win 10 games while playing their best football down the stretch. This is certainly not a team that I would want to see in the AFC playoff bracket. The Raiders came into the season with great hype after acquiring wide receiver Davante Adams to pair with his college quarterback Derek Carr. While Adams remained elite and running back Josh Jacobs joined the upper echelon of running backs as well, Carr was not able to get the Raiders over the hump and a defense that gave up nearly 25 points per game did them no favors. The team has given every indication that they plan to move on from Carr this offseason and bring in a new face as QB1 for the organization. As for the Broncos, whom I projected to not only win 10 games but make the playoffs as well… yikes. Russell Wilson was nowhere near the same player that he was during his Seattle prime, causing an offense without a true No. 1 wide receiver and an injured running back corps to crater. One of the league’s strongest defenses was not able to save first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s job, as he was fired before the season ended. The Broncos have committed to Wilson for the long haul and must find the right head coach that can maximize production from the 34-year-old.
Final Standings
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
3. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
4. Denver Broncos (5-12)
AFC South
Preseason Predictions
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)
4. Houston Texans (3-14)
Allow me to explain myself. Yes, I picked the Colts to win 11 games and the division. It’s a thing. It happened. But at the time in September, this was a valid answer. The Colts entered the year with what seemed to be the most stable quarterback situation with newly acquired Matt Ryan, two talented, young skill players in Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr., and a defense that could have surprised people with their talent on the defensive line and in the secondary. Of course, nothing went right for the Colts this year, resulting in Ryan’s benching, head coach Frank Reich’s midseason firing, and a paltry 4-12-1 record. A complete organizational overhaul may be needed in Indianapolis. If you ignore the top half of the prediction, however, the rest of the AFC South played moderately close to their projections. The Jaguars began the season 2-6 but fought back behind second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson to ultimately win a weak division at 9-8. Of course, the Jags’ ascension coincided with the complete collapse of the Tennessee Titans, who fired their general manager midseason when they were 7-5 and on a two-game losing streak and then proceeded to lose the rest of the games on their schedule. Not great. Injuries to Ryan Tannehill throughout the season did not help matters, but this Tennessee team clearly could have used another dynamic option on offense. Maybe even a wide receiver who had over 1,400 yards in Philadelphia this season. What was his name? Oh, and then there’s the Texans who were predictably not good. However, despite only winning three games, Lovie Smith’s Texans were not quite bad enough for the No. 1 overall pick, which belongs to the Bears. Houston will surely be looking to draft a new franchise quarterback this offseason as Davis Mills proved he was not the long-term answer in 26 starts over the last two seasons.
Final Standings
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
2. Tennessee Titans (7-10)
3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)
4. Houston Texans (3-13-1)
NFC
NFC East
Preseason Predictions
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
3. Washington Commanders (7-10)
4. New York Giants (4-13)
On the one hand, when it comes to the NFC East, I correctly thought the Eagles and Cowboys would reign supreme at the top and that an average Commanders roster would finish with a predictably average record. On the other hand, it seems that I significantly undersold the talent of both Philadelphia and Dallas, and uh… the Giants made the freakin’ playoffs and did not, as I predicted, finish in last place! Much has been made this season about the soft schedule that the Philadelphia faced, but credit to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles for winning games that they should have and for Hurts, blossoming into a true franchise quarterback and MVP candidate. The Cowboys showed some cracks toward the end of the season, though a defense with Micah Parsons and an offense that ranks among the best in the league at producing points should strike fear into a lot of NFC opponents later this month. The Eagles and Cowboys could potentially meet for a third time this season in the NFC Divisional round. Washington, who finished 7-10 in 2021, made marginal improvements to the roster this season, including the addition of quarterback Carson Wentz, and improved by only 1.5 games. The Commanders have talented pieces on defense and should have a full season of Chase Young next season, but the organization is clearly lacking a direction on offense and a young, franchise guy is desperately needed at the position. This brings us to the Giants, led by Brian Daboll, who was able to get just enough out of quarterback Daniel Jones to guide New York to a surprise playoff bid. The Giants certainly have some flaws, including the lack of a go-to receiver and suspect secondary, but the young talent is in place for the Giants to consistently compete, spearheaded by running back Saquon Barkley, defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. New York will meet the No. 3 seed Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card round on Sunday.
Final Standings
1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
3. New York Giants (9-7-1)
4. Washington Commanders (8-8-1)
NFC North
Preseason Predictions
1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
3. Detroit Lions (6-11)
4. Chicago Bears (3-14)
We have reached the point in this article where I am beginning to question my ability to accurately predict the NFL. I surely wasn’t alone in September in believing in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to win the NFC North despite the loss of Davante Adams, but looking back on it, it seems easy to see why Green Bay struggled. Rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs slowed flashes of success, but the Rodgers-Adams connection was one of the strongest in the history of the league and removing it created serious problems on the offensive end for Green Bay. The struggles on defense were another issue entirely. The Vikings won the division yet finished with a -3-point differential. Much of that can be explained by Minnesota’s incredible success in one-possession games, which the Vikings finished 11-0 this season. The Lions didn’t make the playoffs in 2022, but they were a very fun group to watch. Quarterback Jared Goff was solid with a 29-7 TD-INT ratio, Jamaal Williams broke the Lions’ franchise record for rushing touchdowns, and a young defense led by defensive end Aidan Hutchinson improved as the season went along. The Lions will be a popular pick to reach the playoffs, and potentially win the division in 2023. In a small victory for me, the Bears finished just the way I thought they would at 3-14. The Bears’ prize for their futility? The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which they could either use to select a cornerstone defensive player or trade to a QB-hungry team for a sizable haul of future picks to keep building the roster from the ground up.
Final Standings
1. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
2. Detroit Lions (9-8)
3. Green Bay Packers (8-9)
4. Chicago Bears (3-14)
NFC West
Preseason Predictions
1. Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-7)
3. Arizona Cardinals (9-8)
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-13)
The reigning Super Bowl Champion Rams came into the season with legitimate aspirations of becoming the first repeat champion since the 2004-05 New England Patriots. Alas, that was not meant to be, as the Rams were hit hard by injury in 2022, most notably to quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The 49ers on the other hand have returned to the postseason for the third time in the last four seasons and are among the favorites to reach the Super Bowl next month. Despite losing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to an injury in early December, the 49ers have continued to roll behind rookie Brock Purdy (13-4 TD-INT ratio, 5-0 in starts.) San Francisco has won 10 games in a row going into their Wild Card matchup with the Seahawks. Speaking of Seattle, the Seahawks may be the best story of the 2022 season. Expected by many (myself included) to finish near the bottom of the NFC, the Seahawks and their resurgent quarterback Geno Smith not only avoided the NFC West basement, but they also snuck into the playoffs. Smith completed 69 percent of his passes and threw over 30 touchdowns in 2022, and while Seattle lost four of their final six regular season games, Pete Carroll’s group won when it mattered most to make their way into the tournament. My expectations for the Cardinals weren’t sky-high going into the year, but I still held the belief that a Kyler Murray-led offense could win enough games in a down NFC to compete. That was not the case, as Murray was inconsistent before a late-season ACL tear ended his season and the Arizona defense was not nearly effective enough to make up for it. The Cardinals fired head coach Kliff Kingsbury on Monday after he finished 28-37-1 as head coach in Arizona.
Final Standings
1. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
2. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
3. Los Angeles Rams (5-12)
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
NFC South
Preseason Predictions
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)
2. New Orleans Saints (10-7)
3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)
4. Atlanta Falcons (2-15)
Well… my predictions in the NFC South weren’t necessarily off base from a standings perspective. I chose the Bucs to win the division and they did in fact, win the division. They just happened to do so with a losing record. Yeah, the NFC South was not good in 2022 and much of that falls on Tampa Bay, who fell well short of expectations as Tom Brady and the offense regressed from his first two seasons with the Bucs. Fortunately for the Bucs, the other three teams in the division had serious flaws that prevented them from seriously challenging for a playoff spot. The Saints, in the first year of the post-Sean Payton era, struggled to gain a rhythm on offense, switching from Jameis Winston to Andy Dalton under center in Week 4 with little success. In Carolina, the Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start to the season and played much more inspired football under interim head coach Steve Wilks, though like the Saints, quarterback issues plagued the Panthers. Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold all had a chance to start for the Panthers, with none of the three playing consistently well enough to inspire confidence for 2023. The Falcons seemed like the longest shot of the three non-Buccaneers teams to compete this season, but Arthur Smith and his Atlanta squad deserve credit for exceeding preseason expectations. The Falcons won seven games in 2022, including each of their last two. However, the Falcons are still in rebuilding mode and could look to the draft for their quarterback of the future next year. The Falcons hold the eighth overall pick in the draft.
Final Standings
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
2. Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)
4. New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Playoff Predictions
AFC Preseason Predictions
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Denver Broncos
7. Baltimore Ravens
Final AFC Playoffs
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Miami Dolphins
NFC Playoff Predictions
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Minnesota Vikings
7. New Orleans Saints
Final NFC Playoffs
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. New York Giants
7. Seattle Seahawks
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