Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has won each of the last two NFL MVP awards, but without star wideout Davante Adams, does Rodgers have enough weapons to pull off the three-peat? Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp had a 2021 season for the ages, pulling in 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. Do we see a similar season from young receivers Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase this year? And Mike Vrabel took a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry for much of the season to a first-place finish in the AFC last season. Which team may outperform preseason expectations and pull off a similar feat this season?
These are just some of the burning questions that NFL fans have when it comes to awards, which everyone has an opinion on this time of year, and (almost) everyone is wrong about by the end of the season, myself included.
Alas, that doesn’t take away from the spectacle of sitting down and making my selections before the season begins, hoping that I can anticipate what will happen, only to be completely surprised by how the season is going by Week 5. It’s an annual tradition.
Below are my picks for each of the major NFL awards in the 2022 season. Also included at the bottom is my prediction for the Super Bowl matchup and who will end up on top in Super Bowl LVII. To see my full analysis of the AFC, click here. For the NFC, click here.
All statistics and records are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted.
MVP: QB Justin Herbert- Los Angeles Chargers
For the Chargers to unseat the Chiefs as AFC West champions and advance deep into the playoffs, they will need a special season from their third-year quarterback which I believe Herbert delivers in 2022. The Oregon product has been outstanding in his first two NFL seasons, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 and earning a Pro Bowl nod last year. This year, with standout receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside, as well as star running back Austin Ekeler to support him, expect Herbert to rack up the touchdowns and passing yards to be considered for the award, while also serving as the franchise player for a Chargers’ team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Offensive Player of the Year: WR Justin Jefferson- Minnesota Vikings
In a loaded field of potential candidates for Offensive Player of the Year, I expect both Jefferson and Chase, as well as Colts running back Jonathan Taylor to challenge the incumbent winner Kupp for the award. In the end, however, I think Jefferson winds up with the most impressive stat line and takes home the hardware. The 23-year-old has been nothing short of incredible during his first two NFL seasons, catching nearly 200 passes for over 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. With new head coach Kevin O’Connell coming over from the Rams, Jefferson could be used in a similar role to Kupp last season, giving him even more opportunities to showcase his immense talent.
Defensive Player of the Year: S Derwin James Jr.- Los Angeles Chargers
Only two safeties have won Defensive Player of the Year since the beginning of the 21st century: Troy Polamalu in 2010 and Ed Reed in 2004. James would join elite company if he is able to join that group, but he has the talent and the playmaking awareness to reach that ceiling. Now playing on a new four-year, $76 million contract extension, James will once again be used in a variety of ways in the Chargers’ 3-4 defense. Health will be a dominant factor for James, but he proved what he can do when he plays a full season in 2021, collecting two sacks, two interceptions, seven tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles. If James could increase each of those slightly, he may be able to hold off the imposing edge rushers such as T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett for the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Skyy Moore- Kansas City Chiefs
In an award traditionally won by quarterbacks, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious answer at the position outside of Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, who will open the season as the Steelers’ backup and will play behind a shaky offensive line when he does eventually play. With that in mind, I’m going to give my vote to a receiver with one of the best situations of any rookie: Skyy Moore of the Chiefs. With Tyreek Hill out of town, there are lot of open targets in the Kansas City offense, and if Moore can develop rapport quickly with Patrick Mahomes, he may be able to step into Hill’s role as the deep play threat. Moore used his blazing speed in a breakout 2021 season at Western Michigan, catching 95 passes for 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: DE Aidan Hutchinson- Detroit Lions
The Rookie of the Year on defense is a little easier to predict than offense, as the first five picks of April’s draft were defensive players. While any of those five could build a solid case for the hardware, the second overall pick Hutchinson seems to be the readiest to contribute in the NFL. Hutchinson is an athletic specimen at 6’7, 265 lbs. and shows polished moves as a rookie defensive end. Hutchinson was dominant in his final season at Michigan in 2021, picking up 14 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles as he led the Wolverines to the College Football Playoff.
Comeback Player of the Year: WR Michael Thomas- New Orleans Saints
If Michael Thomas stays healthy for an entire season and produces anywhere near his 2018-19 levels, there is simply no way the award goes to anyone else. After two lost seasons for the former Ohio State star, it’s easy to forget that he was the best wide receiver in football over a two-year span. Thomas led the NFL in receptions in both 2018 and 2019 and won Offensive POY for his 2019 dominance (149 recs, 1725 yards). Saints QB Jameis Winston has never been shy about throwing the ball downfield and he will surely be looking for the 6’3 Thomas early and often in 2022.
Coach of the Year: Nathaniel Hackett- Denver Broncos
The Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since Peyton Manning led them to a Super Bowl championship in 2015, meaning Hackett will be a prime candidate for the award if he can lead Denver back to the postseason in his first season on the job. Obviously, most of the attention in Denver will be on new quarterback Russell Wilson and the high-powered offense that many anticipate from the Broncos. But the defense of this team is what could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs in a tough AFC West. If CB Pat Surtain and the rest of the Broncos secondary reach their ceiling, while Wilson and the offense march toward the top of the NFL ranks, expect the Broncos to be right in the thick of the Super Bowl race into January.
Super Bowl: Bills over Packers
It would be an epic story for two teams that endured crushing losses in last year’s playoffs to reach the pinnacle of the sport just one year later. For the Bills, their loss to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional round was another reminder for Bills fans of the pressure and disappointment that this organization has felt since their last Super Bowl appearance in 1993. In Green Bay, the Packers won 13 regular season games for the third season in a row, only to flame out in the Divisional round against the 49ers at Lambeau Field. Both teams have star quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers, talented skill players on offense and a defense that is capable of ranking at the top of the sport this season. In the end, I think we see a brilliantly played game in Glendale, Arizona between two of the best head coaches in the league, but the offensive talent of the Bills prevails. Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs connect for two touchdowns in the game, including one late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory and give the Bills their first championship in the Super Bowl era.
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