It’s been over 200 days since a thrilling Super Bowl LVI that saw the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium, and so much has happened in the NFL world since.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady retired… until he didn’t. The wide receiver market exploded across the league, culminating in the trades of Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown, just to name a few, while Adams signed a new deal with his new team, the Raiders, making him the highest-paid wide receiver by total value in the NFL.
Then there was the quarterback carousel that resulted in several marquee players on new teams, headlined by the Denver Broncos’ acquisition of nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan also went from the Falcons to the Colts, Carson Wentz is on his third team in as many years and Deshaun Watson was traded to the Browns and given a mammoth $230 million guaranteed deal, all while he remained under investigation by the NFL and will be suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season.
Of course, all this offseason activity is a long-winded way of explaining that as fans of the NFL, we have no idea what will happen next during the upcoming season.
But it sure is fun to guess what might happen.
Below is the beginning of my wide-ranging predictions for how the 2022 season may play out, previewing the division races in the AFC, as well as who could emerge from a stacked playoff field.
All statistics and records are courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted.
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
2. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
3. New England Patriots (6-11)
4. New York Jets (6-11)
The Bills will enter the 2022 season with the most preseason hype of any team as QB Josh Allen and their high-powered offense enter as Super Bowl frontrunners. Allen has ascended into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks in the last two years and will enter his third season with WR Stefon Diggs. On defense, the Bills return virtually all of the top contributors from the NFL’s best unit in 2021, including the safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre’Davious White. Buffalo also dipped into the free agent market to sign outside linebacker Von Miller, ensuring their status as arguably the best defense in the league once again.
The Dolphins were splashy with their offensive additions during the offseason, adding Hill and Cedrick Wilson to their wide receiver core, while also revamping the running back group with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. QB Tua Tagovailoa will need to take a large leap in year three to get the Dolphins into the postseason, though the offensive line and skill players should give him every chance to do so. Defensively, Miami is strong in the secondary and on the defensive line led by Xavien Howard at cornerback and Emmanuel Ogbah at defensive end. New head coach Mike McDaniel has been given an outstanding situation in his first year with Miami and a playoff appearance should be well within reach in 2022.
The Patriots have a strong defense, spearheaded by linebacker Matthew Judon and defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr., though the loss of cornerback J.C. Jackson will surely string. However, the offense has given reason to be concerned in the preseason, as QB Mac Jones may not have enough skill-position players to keep the offense alive in most games. Can DeVante Parker or Kendrick Bourne step into the WR1 role on offense for Bill Belichick?
The Jets seem destined to take a step forward this season, with the expectation that their young players on offense – QB Zach Wilson, RB Breece Hall, WRs Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore – will flash their talent throughout the season. The defense was also upgraded going into head coach Robert Saleh’s second season, including first-round pick Sauce Gardner and free agent D.J. Reed at cornerback. New York may still be one year away, but the Jets should remain competitive in nearly every game.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
3. Cleveland Browns (8-9)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)
The Bengals are coming off an extraordinary season that saw them go from fourth to first in the AFC North and reach the Super Bowl in QB Joe Burrow’s second NFL season. Now on paper, it seems as if the Bengals have gotten even better this season, solidifying their offensive line and returning nearly all their skill-position players and defensive playmakers. Cincinnati has the best receiving trio in the league with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and that collection of talent at Burrow’s disposal should allow them to outlast Baltimore for AFC North supremacy once again.
The Ravens started off 8-3 in 2021 and seemed destined to at least return to the playoffs before injuries derailed their season and they finished 8-9. QB Lamar Jackson enters his fifth season in the league seeking a new contract with the Ravens and tight end Mark Andrews is arguably the best at his position, but the wide receiver group is nowhere near the quality of Cincinnati. Defensively, the Ravens have a new defensive coordinator in Mike MacDonald and boast a talented collection of linebackers and cornerbacks that rivals any team in the league. Expect a return to prominence from a unit that finished 19th in the NFL in points allowed per game last season.
The Browns made headlines during the offseason and not always for the right reasons, as the Watson trade and subsequent suspension loomed over the team for much of the last six months. Watson will miss the first 11 games of the season and the Browns will turn to veteran QB Jacoby Brissett in his absence. With an uninspiring wide receiver group, expect the Browns to continue to deploy a run-heavy scheme in offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s third season. On the other side of the ball, Myles Garrett remains one of the best in the game at defensive end, while Cleveland also reunited with Jadeveon Clowney on the opposite side of the line. Defensive backs Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome are ascending stars as well, giving the defensive unit a high ceiling and the potential to make up for the expected offensive deficiencies.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished with a losing record during his 16 years as head coach, though quarterback questions and instability on the offensive line could break that streak in 2022. Mitch Trubisky will be the quarterback to begin the season, but rookie Kenny Pickett is expected to emerge as the starter later in the year. Pittsburgh has a decent collection of skill players, led by RB Najee Harris, but the defensive unit is questionable outside of 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt. It certainly wouldn’t come as a surprise for the Steelers to continue their winning ways and get back to the playoffs, but the odds seem longer than at any point in the Ben Roethlisberger era.
AFC West
1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
3. Denver Broncos (10-7)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
The AFC West is absolutely loaded in 2022, with the possibility of all four teams making the playoffs, but the Chargers may have the roster to come out on top. QB Justin Herbert and the rest of a talented offensive core return, while the defense has been upgraded with free agents Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson. Those two former Pro Bowlers will join a defense that ranked 29th in points allowed per game last season but also features dynamic safety Derwin James and edge rusher Joey Bosa. After missing the playoffs in 2021, the Chargers seem not only destined to get there in 2022, they seem ready to compete deep into January and perhaps even February.
It was an offseason of major change for Kansas City, with star receiver Tyreek Hill traded to the Dolphins and defensive backs Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward leaving via free agency. But the Chiefs still return one of the most transcendent stars in the league in Patrick Mahomes, infused youth into their defense with their two first-round picks in April and added three new weapons to their wide receiver room. The offense may not produce as many dynamic plays, but the Kansas City offense should still be able to compete with the best in the league once again.
Speaking of change, the Broncos are almost unrecognizable from their 2021 squad that finished 7-10, bringing in future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson to lead the offense, a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett and a pair of new coordinators. The defense should remain a strength in the Mile High City, paced by cornerback Pat Surtain and linebacker Bradley Chubb, but the ceiling for this Broncos team rests on Wilson. Can he mesh quickly with wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy and will the offensive line allow Wilson and running backs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III to thrive?
In a similar situation to the Broncos, the Raiders have also overhauled the coaching staff, bringing in former Patriots assistant Josh McDaniels to guide a team with heightened expectations after an exciting offseason. WR Davante Adams will reunite with his former college teammate QB Derek Carr, giving Las Vegas three legitimate options with him, Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. The offensive line is a major concern, and it does not seem any closer to being fixed following the release of Alex Leatherwood. On defense, edge rusher Maxx Crosby and new addition Chandler Jones should pressure the quarterback well, but the secondary is worrisome without a true, shutdown cornerback.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-10)
4. Houston Texans (3-14)
The Carson Wentz era lasted just one season in Indianapolis, as the Colts have moved on to longtime Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. The 37-year-old will be playing with the best skill-position talent that he has had in years, led by RB Jonathan Taylor and emerging wideout Michael Pittman Jr. On defense, the Colts added CB Stephon Gilmore to an underrated secondary with Kenny Moore and Julian Blackmon, and have a solid defensive line unit, including DeForest Buckner and Yannick Ngakoue. In a relatively weak AFC South division, Indianapolis enters as the favorite.
Perhaps an 8-9 finish is disrespectful to the Titans, who are coming off a 12-5 campaign and a regular season atop the AFC in 2021. But then again, QB Ryan Tannehill may be regressing, star wide receiver A.J. Brown was traded to the Eagles and the team just learned that one of their best defensive players, DE Harold Landry, will miss the entire season with a torn ACL. Head coach Mike Vrabel is a master at getting the most out of his Tennessee teams, but barring a breakout performance from multiple players, the Titans may go from No. 1 in the conference to missing out on the playoffs altogether.
While I couldn’t quite talk myself into the Jaguars sneaking their way into the playoffs in 2022, it’s easy to see this team making substantial improvement in year one with Doug Pederson at the helm. QB Trevor Lawrence will go into his second NFL season with improved offensive talent around him (Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr.) and multiple additions to the offensive line. There’s always at least one team in the NFL that exceeds expectations and finds its way to the playoffs, and with a second-year breakout from Lawrence, Jacksonville could be that team.
There’s simply no way around the fact that even in a weak division, the Texans will not win many football games in 2022. There is not enough talent on either side of the ball and even with a second-year improvement from QB Davis Mills, Houston could still end up with a top-3 pick and select either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft. One player to watch for on defense though? CB Derek Stingley Jr., who was impressive during his 2019 freshman season at LSU and will now be tasked with locking down the opposing team’s number-one wideout in his rookie season. The Texans could have a defensive cornerstone if things go well for Stingley this season.
Playoffs
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Denver Broncos
7. Baltimore Ravens
AFC Wild Card
Chargers over Ravens
Bengals over Broncos
Chiefs over Colts
AFC Divisional
Bills over Chiefs
Bengals over Chargers
AFC Championship
Bills over Bengals
Cover graphic created using Canva.
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