With Georgia’s 65-7 dismantling of TCU on Monday night in the College Football Playoff national championship game, the attention of the nation can now fully shift to college basketball as the second weekend of conference play tips off.
Last week, I debuted a new series, previewing many of the marquee college basketball contests of the weekend and dropping predictions for who would come out on top.
The results? Well, they could have been better. I finished above .500 at 7-6 but was underwhelmed with my ability to pick the winners of games in this chaotic sport of college basketball. My West Virginia upset pick of Kansas did not work out well as Bill Self’s group rolled over the Mountaineers, and while I did correctly pick Michigan State over Michigan in a rivalry game, I lost several other close games by picking Wisconsin over Illinois and Baylor over the upstart Wildcats of Kansas State.
But one of the great things about college basketball is that it’s consistent and through the end of March, a steady flow of excellent games will keep our attention.
This week, I once again chose 13 games that interest me the most, from an Atlantic-10 battle on Friday night to numerous showdowns between ranked, Power 5 teams.
Last week’s record: 7-6
Season total record: 7-6
Stats are courtesy of sports-reference.com/cbb unless otherwise noted.
Friday, Jan. 13
Michigan State @ Illinois, 9:00 p.m., FS1
The Illini are a tough group to figure out. Losers of three straight games going into last Saturday’s home tilt against Wisconsin, Illinois shot 52 percent from three and had 24 points from Terrence Shannon Jr. as they put up 79 against a solid defensive team in the Badgers. Illinois then cooked Nebraska earlier this week, setting up a matchup with Tom Izzo and the Spartans at home. The way to beat Illinois seems to be through forcing turnovers and forcing their guards to beat you, something that Michigan State doesn’t do much of right now (354th in defensive TO%, according to Kenpom.)
Prediction: Illinois
VCU @ Dayton, 9:00, ESPN2
Dayton came into the season with as much hype as almost any mid-major team, paced by returning All-A-10 forward Daron Holmes. But after a 3-4 start, including losses to UNLV and BYU, that hype for Anthony Grant’s squad began to fade. Lately, however, the Flyers seem to have righted the ship. Dayton has won seven games in a row and is 4-0 in conference play, led by Holmes, who is averaging 19.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. VCU is 3-1 in conference play and 12-5 overall, but questionable losses to Jacksonville, Temple, and most recently Duquesne make me question their ability to hang with the Flyers.
Prediction: Dayton
Saturday, Jan. 14
#14 Miami @ NC State, 12:00, ACCNX
Shame on me for not picking the Wolfpack to keep their winning ways going against Virginia Tech last weekend, after singing their praises for the beatdown they put on Duke last Wednesday. Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner form a dynamic backcourt duo and the Wolfpack take care of the basketball as well as any team in the country. Another big test awaits in the ACC as the No. 14 Miami Hurricanes and leading scorer Isaiah Wong come to town, but NC State looks like they belong among the best in the ACC and will get revenge for a Dec. 10 loss at Miami for their third straight win in conference play.
Prediction: NC State
#18 Wisconsin @ Indiana, 1:00, CBS
A month ago, this matchup could have pitted two of the Big Ten’s top teams against one another in a pivotal game at Assembly Hall. Now the Hoosiers have to win this game to avoid their season continuing to spiral out of control. Indiana has lost three in a row, including 85-66 Wednesday at Penn State, and are also without two key players in Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson for a considerable amount of time. The Badgers are also looking to stop a losing streak themselves, having dropped games against Illinois and Michigan State. Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis has done everything he can to keep the Hoosiers going amid their losing streak, averaging 24.0 points and 16.5 rebounds per game over the last three contests.
Prediction: Wisconsin
Kansas State may just be the best story in college basketball through the first two months. The Wildcats, in their first season under new head coach Jerome Tang, have defied preseason expectations and are not only Big 12 title contenders but also ranked No. 11 in the latest AP poll. Led by two of the best players in the country in forward Keyontae Johnson and guard Markquis Nowell, K-State scored 116 points at Texas and 97 at Baylor last week, both victories. They will go up against a solid TCU squad that has lost two consecutive games in Big 12 play. The Horned Frogs have really struggled shooting the three this season and over their last five games have shot a dismal 27 percent from long-range. That will have to improve for the Frogs to keep up with a potent Wildcats’ offense.
Prediction: Kansas State
#19 Providence @ Creighton, 2:00, FS1
Another AP-ranked team in for a tough road test, the Friars have quietly won nine in a row and began Big East play at 6-0 with wins over Marquette and UConn. Providence’s latest win against St. John’s however, may have laid the blueprint for how Creighton can come away with the home victory. Ed Cooley’s team allowed 80 points to a St. John’s team that is 1-5 in conference play, mainly on the strength of 56 percent shooting from two-point range. The Bluejays, with one of the best interior scoring options in the country in 7”1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner will look to exploit that. Creighton, losers of two in a row, will be looking for a spark ahead of winnable games versus Butler and St. John’s in the next two weeks.
Prediction: Creighton
For most of Tuesday night, it appeared as though the Jayhawks could have been in serious danger of losing at home to unranked Oklahoma. They even led by 10 with just over five minutes remaining. But did anyone watching that game really think Kansas was going to lose, even at that point? That’s just the level of greatness that we have come to expect from a Bill Self-coached Kansas squad, which this year sits among the game’s elite once again. Even on a night when Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson combine to shoot 4-20, the Jayhawks have too many ways to beat you offensively and are forcing turnovers on defense at their best rate in over a decade. There is no reason to think their nine-game winning streak ends Saturday.
Prediction: Kansas
LSU @ #4 Alabama, 4:00, ESPN
After a 12-1 start to the season lent reason for optimism in Matt McMahon’s first season at the helm in Baton Rouge, the Tigers have come crashing down in SEC play, losing three in a row before the going really gets tough. The Tigers will face three of the best teams in the conference in three straight games, beginning with Alabama on the road Saturday afternoon. While LSU doesn’t have one skill that stands out on paper, the Crimson Tide excels on both ends of the floor, while also possessing perhaps the best freshman in the country, forward Brandon Miller.
Prediction: Alabama
#24 Duke @ Clemson, 5:00, ACCN
Saturday’s game is a big one for the Blue Devils, who aside from freshman forward Kyle Filipowski, have not been able to establish a consistent offensive identity this year amid injuries and inconsistency. A win Saturday would also give Duke a solid win away from home after falling on the road to Wake Forest and NC State. But for as big as the game is for Duke, it is all that and more for Clemson. The Tigers, behind two of the nation’s most underrated stars in forward Hunter Tyson and guard Chase Hunter, are looking to establish themselves as ACC contenders and continue their run of 10 wins in their last 11 games. A home upset over Duke catches the country’s attention in a massive way.
Prediction: Clemson
Oklahoma State @ Baylor, 6:00, ESPN2
Declaring games in January a “must-win” is typically an overreaction, but the sentiment may apply to this Baylor team. Sure, the Bears could lose Saturday and still make a run through the NCAA Tournament, but that continues to get more difficult with the losses piling up. Scott Drew’s team is 1-3 in the Big 12, has slipped from No. 6 to No. 28 in Kenpom’s ratings since the opening game of the season, and will still face Kansas and Texas twice, as well as Arkansas. Fortunately for Baylor, Oklahoma State has hit a lull of their own to begin Big 12 play, losing three of four as they continue to turn the ball over at one of the worst rates in the country. Look for a big game from Baylor guard Adam Flagler, averaging 18.7 points and 5.3 assists in conference play so far.
Prediction: Baylor
New Mexico @ #23 San Diego State, 9:00, CBSSN
Sure, this game has lost some appeal now that New Mexico doesn’t carry an unblemished record (now 15-2), but this weekend will provide a huge test for both the Lobos and the Aztecs. New Mexico, behind their big three of Jamal Mashburn Jr, Jaelen House, and Morris Udeze is looking to establish itself as a contender in the Mountain West, while San Diego State is on a quest for another high-quality win. The Aztecs best wins so far are against Ohio State on a neutral court and Nevada at home. San Diego State has struggled from beyond the arc this year but may be turning it around at the right time, shooting over 46 percent from distance since Dec. 28.
Prediction: San Diego State
Sunday, Jan. 15
The NFL Playoffs will take center stage this weekend, especially with three games on Sunday, but the best game of the college basketball slate may just be Sunday afternoon at noon at the Cintas Center. The Musketeers are beginning to establish themselves as the best team in the Big East, with wins over UConn, Creighton, and Villanova on a 10-game win streak. Guards Souley Boum and Colby Jones are both All-Big East caliber guards, but Xavier will be tested against one of the best offensive teams in the country. Marquette is third in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, second in effective field goal percentage, and first in the country in two-point field goal percentage. Two explosive offenses could produce a high-scoring thriller in Cincinnati.
Prediction: Xavier
Northwestern @ Michigan, 12:00, BTN
Some credit needs to go to head coach Chris Collins and Northwestern in 2022-23. Despite being of the worst shooting teams not only among Power 5 teams, but in the country, the Wildcats have stacked wins over Michigan State, Illinois and Indiana, and only lost to Rutgers by three on Wednesday. How are they doing it? With one of the best defenses in the country and an underrated backcourt tandem of Chase Audige and Boo Buie. Northwestern now goes on the road to play Michigan, who leans on star center Hunter Dickinson to score points in the post and in the half-court. Who is the best team in the country at stopping opponents on two-point field goals (40.5%)? That would be Northwestern, of course.
Prediction: Northwestern
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